Will Joe Biden’s early poll lead in the Democratic Party primaries be a blessing or a curse?

Politics Explained: Donald Trump came from nowhere to become the Republican candidate in 2016, but the Democratic field for 2020 has less potential for surprises

Logic should dictate that paying significant attention to polling about the 2020 Democratic primaries almost nine months before they begin is folly.

But if precedent is anything to go by, the current state of the polls can give some useful indications about how the general election could look next November.

You just need to add the Donald Trump-mandated caveat that history was already upended in 2016.

The latest polls have Joe Biden ahead of his nearest rival, Bernie Sanders, by 30 percentage points or more – around 46 points to 14.

While the sample sizes are fairly small – from 400 to 1,100 respondents – that is a big lead in a field with more than 20 candidates.

At this stage in 2015, President Trump would not even announce his campaign for another month or so. He was polling at somewhere between two and five per cent (not a million miles from the Democrat contenders below Sanders, who are polling at five to eight per cent).

A week after he had announced, Trump was pulling in 11 per cent, behind Jeb Bush’s 15 per cent.

Biden is known for his gaffes, but they are now such a part of his character he can move on from lapses in word choices that others may not come back from. In that way he is similar to Trump.

History suggests that those leading the polls by such a big a margin as Biden – between 20 and 35 points – in the first six months of the year before the primary is decided (ie January to June 2019) will win the nomination around 35 per cent of the time. Those with a lead of 35 points or more won their party’s nomination a whopping 75 per cent of the time.

While Biden’s average poll lead is currently 22.3 points, the last two polls have put him 30 and 32 points ahead of the next best candidate – and the last four have seen his vote share increase.

Jeb Bush is an example of what can happen to early front runners, eventually losing his poll lead to Trump in mid-July 2015 and never recovering. With more than a dozen candidates for the Republican nomination in 2016, we saw how difficult it can be to gain traction – still, even the early running involved at least three candidates with double figure polling numbers.

That is something the current Democratic crop is yet to see consistently. One Quinnipac poll from the end of April had Biden, Sanders, Senator Elizabeth Warren and Indiana mayor Pete Buttigieg each on 10 points or more. In other polls, only Biden and Sanders are managing double figures.

Like Trump – though for different reasons – Biden has the name recognition that is crucial in such primary races. As the former vice president to one of the most recognisable leaders ever in Barack Obama, his face is known in a way that few in America can match.

This can help too when it comes to weathering potential scandal and missteps.

Biden is known for his gaffes, but they are now such a part of his character he can move on from lapses in word choices that others may not come back from. In that way too he is similar to Trump.

As he was announcing his candidacy, Biden faced accusations from a number of women that the former VP had greeted or touched them in ways that made them feel uncomfortable. Biden said that he needed to be “more considerate” in future without offering a direct apology – and his poll numbers do not appear to have been affected in the weeks that followed.

Saying that Biden definitely will become the Democratic nominee is stretching things at this precise moment, but he has certainly been able to set himself up as a front runner who will be in this race for the long haul.