Is the UK headed for an early general election?

Politics Explained: Many forces are at play but Britain will be going to the polls again sooner rather than later

With so frail a grip on power, Johnson will struggle to pass any of the ambitious domestic programmes he unveiled last week (AP)

To many, Boris Johnson’s administration – packed with figures from the 2016 Vote Leave campaign – looks more like a team to fight an election than a team to govern.

So are we headed for an early general election? The first thing to note is that Johnson has inherited the most perilous possible parliamentary position.

His working majority in the Commons – dependent on the continued support of the DUP – stands at just two and is almost certain to shrink to one after next week’s by-election.

Tory insiders admit he will be lucky not to lose his majority altogether within the next 12 months.

And with so frail a grip on power, he will struggle to pass any of the ambitious domestic programmes he unveiled this week, let alone get MPs’ approval for a no-deal Brexit.

But the second thing to note is that, no matter how much he may desire one, Johnson cannot call an election at a time of his choosing.

Electoral laws introduced by David Cameron require the next general election to be held in June 2022 unless the PM loses a no-confidence vote of MPs or gets a two-thirds majority to bring the date forward.

Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn has said he will call a confidence vote at the “appropriate” time, which most observers think means in autumn.

To force an election ahead of the 31 October date scheduled for Brexit he would have to table a motion on the day MPs return from their summer break, which is 3 September.

Many expect him to do so, but it is more difficult to predict if he would win.

A couple of Tory MPs have said they will vote to bring the government down if the only alternative is no deal, but many other pro-EU Conservatives will draw the line at joining Corbyn in precipitating an election they fear could put a man they regard as a Marxist in Downing Street.

So what circumstances could encourage Mr Johnson to take the risk of seeking an election himself? The first would be a big boost in the polls linked to his own arrival at No 10. Tory strategists hope Johnson’s dynamic, optimistic style and cast-iron promise to take the UK out of the EU by Halloween will neutralise the attraction of Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party.

If that proves right, and Tories swiftly build up a dominant lead in the polls, Mr Johnson may feel tempted to go to the country to secure the kind of majority that would allow him to implement whatever Brexit outcome he can fashion. That temptation will be even stronger if he finds himself heading for a Commons vote to block no deal, which he would almost certainly lose.

It is unclear what would happen if he called an election for November on the day the UK crashes out of the EU. To delay Brexit to a date after the election would require the government to request an extension from Brussels, and MPs could be expected to engage in a frantic campaign to force him to do so.

Many Tories want to get an election under their belts while Corbyn is still in charge of Labour, believing he would prove an easy opponent for Johnson to trounce. Others recall that Theresa May thought the same in 2017 when she underestimated Corbyn’s campaigning skills and popular appeal, and paid the price.

More likely is that Mr Johnson will aim to get Brexit done in October and then table a motion for an early election soon after. He would hope that completing Brexit will pull the rug from under Farage’s party and earn him the gratitude of weary voters who are heartily sick of the whole process.

A quick election might be mired in the period of chaos likely to follow a no-deal outcome, but could be completed before the full impact of Brexit on the economy becomes clear.

Better to go to the polls amid ferry port queues and empty supermarket shelves than in 2022 after two years of factory closures and job losses, and before the supposed long-term benefits of withdrawal have fed through, he may calculate.

Labour is likely to dread an election in these circumstances, when any fury over the immediate results of Brexit could be expected to boost the consistently pro-Remain Liberal Democrats rather than Corbyn’s party.

But it will be difficult for the official opposition to vote down an election which is their top policy goal. All of these factors make it difficult to predict the exact date of an election, but it seems likely Britain will be going to the polls again sooner rather than later.