General election: Which party is winning the campaign so far?

Sean O'Grady looks at the parties’ fortunes and marks their progress in the battle for No 10

Boris Johnson steps from his battle bus during a campaign trail stop in Middleton, Manchester, on Friday (AP)

Despite high-profile resignations, plenty of campaign missteps and questions about policy, all major parties are still on the election bandwagon as the 12 December poll approaches. But can any of them say they’re really winning?

Conservatives 3/5

The Tory campaign has, thus far, been a series of gaffes, made-up stories about Labour and a leader showing himself as careless about the truth as he is about, well, just about everything he touches. He’s been booed, ridiculed and heckled – but, well, so what? None of that has cramped his style or prevented the Conservatives from maintaining a poll lead over Labour of 10 or more percentage points. They are the bookies’ favourites to be the largest party, and possibly win a working majority.

Low points include successive gaffes/illuminating moments of candour from Jacob Rees-Mogg (Grenfell residents not smart enough to run for their lives); Priti Patel blithely promising to “lower” immigration (thus setting a de facto new cap of 261,000); oh, and the Welsh secretary resigned on day one. Boris Johnson himself was unable to adequately explain his own Brexit plan to an audience in Northern Ireland, and gave a slightly dishevelled showing at the Cenotaph service. Numerous Tory candidates dropped out over their offensive remarks.

The high point was Nigel Farage promising not to stand Brexit Party candidates in Conservative-held seats. The Tories’ surprising resilience, based on a few basic slogans about Brexit and public spending, must also be a source of comfort for a party that is barely better organised than they were during the awful show they put on in 2017.

Jeremy Corbyn addresses an audience on Friday at the University of Lancaster (Getty)

Labour 3/5

Labour’s campaign has, thus far, been a disappointment for those expecting a 2017-style surge in the party’s fortunes. On about half of the support won in 2017, a Labour majority is close to impossible, according to John Curtice, the pre-eminent election guru. That is the central fact – though things may indeed change.

Deputy leader Tom Watson quit, but the rest of the front bench got on with their jobs. Thus there were some solid policy proposals from John McDonnell (fibre broadband); Angela Rayner (National Education Service); Jonathan Ashworth (NHS) and Rebecca Long-Bailey (Green New Deal). Bad stats on the NHS will at least help Labour solidify its lead on that issue.

However, they all seemed too easily discombobulated by the sheer audacity of the Tories’ propaganda campaign – the £1.2 trillion “cost of Corbyn”; the £2,400 tax bill for every taxpayer, and so on. The outstanding weaknesses in the Labour campaign are on their Brexit stance (just about holding together), some flaky antisemitic candidates, and their attitude to a second Scottish independence referendum (lurching round like a broken supermarket shopping trolley). They’re also a little bit unsure about whether or not Britain should unleash nuclear missiles on Russia, a degree of caution there which is perhaps understandable.

Humaira Ali, Lib Dem candidate for Bermondsey and Old Southwark, alongside Jo Swinson on Saturday (Getty)

Liberal Democrats 2/5

Jo Swinson might have thought she’d have taken the nation by storm by now in what is turning out to be a highly personalised campaign (and thus a risky one, personally). “Jo Swinson’s Liberal Democrats”, as they’re now known, have failed to sustain much momentum thus far, in contrast to the usual pattern of an election campaign, when the broadcasters are obliged to offer them a higher profile. Not, though, a high enough profile to see Ms Swinson on the stage with Johnson and Corbyn in the leader’s debate on ITV.

The Lib Dems do seem set to at least double their 2017 vote share, and gain more MPs from their Remain Alliance with the greens and Plaid Cymru and some tactical voting; but the results may be much less impressive than hoped.

Manifesto launch: Green Party co-leader Sian Berry (centre); Amelia Womack (left), deputy leader and candidate for Newport West; (right) Bristol West Candidate Carla Denyer (PA)

Greens 3/5

The Greens have probably made the best of being marginalised in this election by that electoral arrangement with the Liberal Democrats and the Welsh nationalists. They should treble their parliamentary representation (ie from the present one seat held by Caroline Lucas). Despite the attention rightly given to the Extinction Rebellion protests and the intense debate about the climate emergency, green issues haven’t thus far pushed the NHS and Brexit out of the conversation.

Nicola Sturgeon and Dave Doogan, SNP candidate for Angus, meet supporters on Saturday (Getty)

SNP 4/5

The Scottish National Party has a simple and clear appeal, and the resentments stirred up by Brexit, and the departure of the Tories dynamic leader Ruth Davidson, means they will probably make Scotland a Tory-free zone. They have two ways of stopping Brexit: by depriving Johnson of his parliamentary majority; or by securing independence and re-entry to the EU. They seem likely to get their mandate.

Nigel Farage leaves the BBC Headquarters in London yesterday (Reuters)

Brexit Party 3/5

As for Nigel Farage, it doesn’t look good for the Brexit Party. Having made his gesture to Mr Johnson, he received nothing back except some rubbery promises about regulatory alignment. Mr Farage still seems to sincerely believe he will pick up previously safe Labour seats where the Conservatives are unlikely to make progress on cultural or historical grounds. Places such as Hartlepool may provide a fresh Brexiteer bridgehead into the House of Commons, but the odds are against them. An appeal to the north of England would be more convincing if Mr Farage hadn’t tweeted that Hull is in South Yorkshire.

For all the parties, the election is becoming one where where digital targeted communications via social media (however untruthful) will be more important than ever; where the personal safety of candidates has never been more insecure; and where tactical voting and tactical campaigning is liable to deliver some unexpected results, but not, so far, enough to stop Boris Johnson or prevent Brexit.