Is Nicola Sturgeon the key to a Final Say referendum?

Chief political commentator John Rentoul examines whether hopes of giving the public the Final Say on leaving the EU rest with the SNP

Nicola Sturgeon during the launch of the SNP Manifesto in Glasgow (EPA)

The word “referendum” appears 21 times in the Scottish National Party manifesto, which Nicola Sturgeon launched yesterday. Nineteen times it refers to the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence, or the future referendum on the same subject that the party wants to hold.

But the manifesto also says: “In a UK context, we will support a second EU referendum with Remain on the ballot paper.” This means SNP votes could be the key to Remainers’ hopes of a Final Say referendum.

The first step towards a new referendum would be for the Conservatives and the Democratic Unionist Party between them to lose seven seats compared with the 2017 election. That would give parties committed to a second EU referendum 322 seats, one more than the Conservatives and DUP on 321 combined.

If the DUP loses Belfast North – the seat held by Nigel Dodds, the party’s leader at Westminster – which is on a knife-edge, that still leaves the Conservatives having to lose six seats to make this possible. That is at the extreme end of the range of current opinion polls, but it could happen, and there are several tactical voting campaigns trying to increase the chances.

In practice, supporters of a Final Say would need the Conservatives to lose more seats than this. There are still a number of Labour MPs who are opposed to a second referendum, and who are unlikely to lose their seats if the Conservatives lose seats overall.

And the real swing vote in a second referendum might not be the SNP bloc in the House of Commons. Sturgeon made it clear that in no circumstances would SNP MPs allow Boris Johnson to stay on as prime minister in a hung parliament. That means they would facilitate Jeremy Corbyn, who is committed to a new referendum, becoming prime minister.

So then it might be up to Jo Swinson and the Liberal Democrats to decide. She has said neither Johnson nor Corbyn is fit to be prime minister, but Labour won’t change its leader to suit her, especially if it has just denied the Tories a majority.

In practice, the Lib Dems are likely to go with Corbyn rather than try – and probably fail – to get a referendum out of Johnson.

But the key to all this is the Conservatives losing seats.