Who’s winning the general election campaign so far?

Sean O'Grady examines the state of the race for Downing Street after the parties release their manifestos

Johnson arrives for the Conservative Party’s manifesto launch in Telford on Sunday (Reuters)

Both main parties are up on the start of the campaign, but the Tory poll lead is steady at a relatively healthy 13 points ahead of Labour on the week, enough for a majority of 50 or 60. Manifestos were published, but as ever what was omitted could be as revealing as what was put in.

Conservatives 4/5

They’re winning, you know. It is possible to argue that Theresa May is the Conservatives’ most potent weapon in the general election of 2019, in the way that she was obviously not in 2017.

Every spectacular error she committed last time around has been studied, re-studied, lessons learned and repast avoided.

Hence the appearance of Boris Johnson at a head-to-head debate with Jeremy Corbyn, something May avoided and perhaps later regretted, because it made her look a bit cowardly.

It went well for both men, as did a later BBC Question Time format (which added Nicola Sturgeon and Jo Swinson, for balance). According to some instant polls, it was a tie or a very narrow win for Johnson, who avoided making any gaffes. On the other side, Jeremy Corbyn might be said to have “won” because he avoided the humiliation he was supposed to suffer at the stiletto blade of master-debater Johnson, who turned out to be nothing of the sort. His Oxford Union-style of theatrics did not translate well on to the small screen, and he did himself no favours by talking over host Julie Etchingham’s efforts to control him.

Hence too, the second lesson learned of the May campaign – no embarrassingly costly, politically insane commitments such as the “dementia tax” in the manifesto.

Indeed, the document was considered timid – a few well-chosen/repeated popular pledges on schools, police, hospitals and (a new one) nurses camouflaged an extremely modest commitment to more public spending. Taxes rates won’t rise, but we have heard that sort of thing before – thresholds and other important details left up for grabs. Borrowing will rise, but no one seems ready to own up to how much, even though the Tories’ programme was costed this time (unlike 2017, of course).

Lesson three from 2017 was to say that there would be no moves on fox hunting. The low point for Johnson was probably being laughed at by the ITV studio audience when he tried to take a question on the importance of truth in politics. He should be used to it by now, given the justified criticism of the Tories’ fake “factcheckUK” Twitter feed, and a misleading claim about nurse recruitment.

Jacob Rees-Mogg remains in solitary confinement.

Labour 3/5

Like the Tories, Labour seems to be learning the lessons of the past. The 2017 manifesto was notable for its radicalism, and how it sprung free of the triangulations of the Blair-Brown-Miliband years. Popular policies; costed; ambitious – and Labour ended up depriving the Tories of the majority and getting the best swing to Labour since 1945.

So obviously, you might say, the lesson is to double down on radicalism and ambition. Thus, the Labour manifesto was deep in detail and covered virtually every nook and cranny of national life – following up the promise of free broadband with billions more in pledges.

One that was not in the manifesto but revealed later was to the “Waspi women” – female pensioners who, they argue, were inadequately informed about the postponement of their retirement date and unable to act accordingly. Normally such disadvantaged groups can be dealt with without much financial trouble, but the total cost of the Waspi recompense runs to £58bn – a figure that was not accounted for by Labour in its various costings. The party says it is a moral obligation and can be covered by “contingency” fining; and the courts may force the state to pay up anyway. It did, though, dent Labour’s credibility.

Labour has edged up in the polls, at the expense of the Lib Dems it seems, but still trail the Tories and with most of their main campaign weaponry deployed (we assume).

Corbyn decided to take the opportunity to strengthen his non-commitment on Brexit by promising to be strictly “neutral” on the renegotiation he is himself heading – a stance mocked by Johnson and the TV audience when he attempted to say Labour is perfectly clear on Brexit.

Labour also seems a bit unclear about what, when and how it would offer Scotland a second independence referendum, if the SNP tried to extract such a move in a hung parliament. Johnson calls it the “Corbyn-Sturgeon coalition”, attempting to motivate unionist voters, especially in Scotland.

John McDonnell, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Laura Pidcock and Angela Rayner were more in evidence than the likes of Emily Thornberry, Diane Abbott and Keir Starmer this week.

Liberal Democrats 1/5

Despite, or perhaps because of, their strong anti-Brexit stance the party seems to be undergoing the traditional two-party squeeze, in this case losing support to Labour and its final say referendum pledge.

Indeed, leader Jo Swinson has ceased to call herself the prime minister and is instead tilting towards being the brakes on a Johnson administration. She went so far as to declare that she would even support the Tories provided there was a second referendum on a Brexit deal.

The Liberal Democrats’ shadow chancellor, Sir Ed Davey, produced a manifesto of studied restraint, and even expressed some desire to reduce the national debt. The appeal seems to have fallen on deaf ears.

Greens 1/5

Another week in the slow death of the planet went by with the Greens barely registering in the political coverage. Part of this is simply due to their minority status; part the bias of the mainstream media (they say); but it is also because the climate emergency, despite being an emergency, is stubbornly not being treated as an emergency by much of the public. Maybe the Greens should glue themselves to Andrea Leadsom or something.

SNP 4/5

The SNP is still doing well, high on a clear “stop Brexit and start independence” platform – 49 of the 59 seats at Westminster could go their way.

Nicola Sturgeon also added to Labour’s dilemmas in Scotland – the party is after all still unionist and in two minds about indyref2 – by desiring nuclear weapons on the Clyde a “red line” for her party.

Still, the Tories’ improvement in the national polls is being reflected there, and the SNP look a little less likely to make Scotland a Tory-free zone than a nuclear-free zone.

The Brexit Party 2/5

The Brexit Party issued a populist manifesto, or “contract”, which put the use of citizen-supported mass referenda at the top of an agenda of political reform – but with a 10-year delay to stall any talk of a final say EU referendum. Abolishing the House of Lords and, presumably, the BBC by abolishing the licence fee were other key promises. After standing down in half the seats, though, and being squeezed by the Tories, the party no longer looks the threat to a Conservative victory they once might have.