Will Rishi Sunak lose his battle to avoid winter lockdown?

The chancellor is opposed to the return of ‘economic restrictions’ – but government advisers are now pushing for steps to curb the Covid surge. Adam Forrest takes a look at the battle ahead

Chancellor Rishi Sunak (PA Wire)

There is a wearily familiar pattern to Boris Johnson’s public statements during the Covid crisis. The prime minister tells us he hopes there will be no need for a lockdown, then belatedly bows to the data and announces another round of restrictions.

Will the same cycle play out during a fourth wave this winter? The astute political commentator Gary Neville is in little doubt about what happens next.

After the prime minister claimed there was “nothing to indicate” a winter lockdown would be necessary, the Sky Sports pundit tweeted: “The clearest indication yet a lockdown is on its way.”

Rishi Sunak does not believe lockdown rule-writing is on the wall. The chancellor remains firmly opposed to bringing back curbs on our movements, making clear in an interview with The Times he sees no need for shops, pubs and restaurants to shut again.

Sunak said there will be no need to a return to “significant economic restrictions” – despite warnings from NHS leaders and top scientists that the renewed rise of the virus could overwhelm the health service this winter.

Some of the government’s most senior advisers are not impressed with the chancellor’s fixation on the economic recovery when the NHS looks like it’s reeling once again from another upsurge in Covid cases.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said in a meeting last week that the reintroduction of mask-wearing, working from home guidance and vaccine certification – the key components of the government’s ‘Plan B’ – would help restrict case numbers and prevent further measures down the road.

Prof Adam Finn, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), said it was “quite questionable” for Sunak to suggest more booster jabs alone would be enough to see the nation through the grim season ahead.

Prof Finn told Times Radio on Saturday the government should “do more” to toughen up on restrictions now. And Prof Peter Openshaw, a member of the Nervtag group, said he feared a full lockdown would be needed at Christmas “if we don’t act soon” with Plan B measures. “There’s no point in delaying,” he told the BBC.

The Sunak vs the Scientists battle comes as ministers consider how quickly they may have to move ahead with the Plan B measures, or be forced to go further if the outlook gets gloomier still.

More donning of masks may not bother Sunak too much, but he most certainly does not want the nation’s office workers to return to remote working. The chancellor has led the push to get us all commuting and buying coffees again after the pandemic hollowed out Britain’s city centres.

Sunak is now counting on the half-term holiday to make a difference to the outlook. Johnson is said to have delayed a decision (as is so often the way) on whether to deploy Plan B measures until after this week’s school break in the slightly desperate hope it will help halt the recent surge.

The chancellor is also aided by the fact there is little clamour for curbs among cabinet ministers. Health secretary Sajid Javid has conceded new cases could soon hit 100,000 a day – but has not sounded particularly keen on tightening restrictions.

Sunak will make the case for the economic health of the nation to be given priority, backed up by the rhetoric from lockdown-sceptic Tory MPs and hospitality bosses warning businesses will go to the wall if restrictions return.

Can the chancellor keep the prime minister on his current course, leaving Britain entirely open for business? For now, perhaps. But as Gary Neville noted, the words coming out Johnson’s mouth don’t often mean very much.

This was the prime minister who allegedly yelled “let the bodies pile high!” last autumn – only to reluctantly agree to a second lockdown in November.

If the lines and numbers on the government’s Covid dashboard keep on rising during the weeks ahead, Johnson may be forced to ignore Sunak’s GDP estimates and pay closer attention to the projections offered to him by the scientists.