Recess is over – so what is in store as MPs head back to the Commons?

As parliament reconvenes following the party conferences, Sean O’Grady offers a preview of the highlights to look out for over the coming weeks

In a still-new parliament, all will have much to prove (PA)

Good news. The House of Commons is back in session, and the coming weeks will provide ample opportunities for your parliamentarians to opine, shine, and, of course, whine for personal and party advantage, as well as for the betterment of the British people. In a still-new parliament with a record turnover of members, all among them, from the new-ish prime minister to the new leader of the opposition, will have much to prove and still more to keep them busy...

What’s the highlight?

That might be too sparkling a word for it, but the most important set-piece occasion will be the Budget on Wednesday 30 October, which is unfortunately timed adjacent to Halloween. On the downside, Rachel Reeves will have to find further funds to plug the £22bn “black hole” in the public finances she says she discovered soon after taking office – something bitterly disputed by the (for now) shadow chancellor, Jeremy Hunt.

There will be tax hikes all round, some further spending cuts (possibly obscured), changes to the fiscal rules to make life a little easier, and, possibly, some embarrassment if the projected revenues from taxing non-doms and private schools don’t look like materialising after all.

On the upside, Ms Reeves has the opportunity to set the agenda and explain what this Labour government is for – setting out the vision thing, which has, surprisingly, been a bit hazy. Rishi Sunak, as leader of the opposition (as he will still be), will have the job of responding to the Budget, and will no doubt leverage his substantial experience in such matters to good effect.

What about the rest of the Starmer missions?

The government will be trying to progress its bills on renters’ rights and workers’ rights, which should rally the troops and give Angela Rayner and Jonathan Reynolds scope to actually get some stuff done, raise their profiles, and deliver important manifesto pledges. Rayner will also be at the forefront of the effort to get the housing drive underway, and to relax planning regulations, which will no doubt run into legal challenges.

Elsewhere, Liz Kendall will be busily engaged in the politically toxic mission of reforming social security (vulnerable to backbench rebellions), and Yvette Cooper will need to demonstrate some evidence that Labour is “smashing the criminal gangs” by the end of the year, albeit Channel crossings usually fall over winter.

Do the Tories have anything to look forward to?

Yes. Sadly, we will still be waiting another three weeks for the new Conservative leader to be elected, and a further 10 days (because of a mini-recess) before Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, Robert Jenrick or Tom Tugendhat faces Starmer at Prime Minister’s Questions (on 13 November). There will also be a new shadow chancellor (obviously a crucial appointment) and frontbench team. Expect to see some quite unfamiliar faces keen to make their mark in the rebuilding of their party.

Labour’s majority is clearly unassailable, but, as witnessed over the winter fuel payment decision, the Tories and other opposition parties can use parliamentary procedures to force open latent fissures in the ruling party’s unity, and maybe win the odd skirmish.

Are we going to see more of Ed Davey?

And his colleagues – yes. Now that the Liberal Democrats have regained their status as third party in the Commons, Davey regains his weekly slot at PMQs, and his gang of 72 MPs will be more voluble than at any time since the coalition. Layla Moran will be chairing the health select committee, for example, and Daisy Cooper will no doubt become an even more prominent figure as deputy leader and, now, Treasury spokesperson.

What can we expect from Nigel Farage?

He’s not yet found his stride in the Commons, and it doesn’t seem to suit him, but no doubt there’ll be plenty of stunts and deliberately offensive questions as the Reform UK contingent tiresomely pursue their “foxes in the henhouse” routine. The last of the empire loyalists will relish the debates on the Chagos Islands.

Will the assisted dying legislation pass?

Probably. The private member’s bill will be launched by its sponsor, Kim Leadbeater, in the Commons in the next fortnight or so, with cross-party support. It is promised a free vote, as is usual on questions of conscience, and the debates should bring out the best in the Commons, reflecting wider discussions in the nation as a whole. The assisted dying law, if passed, may well prove of more abiding significance than many government bills.