What will the Christopher Pincher scandal lead to?

Once more it seems the prime minister cares little about the personal morality of those closest to him politically, says Sean O’Grady

Boris Johnson is still facing calls to clear up questions that remain over the Chris Pincher controversy (PA)

Given the trajectory of other recent scandals, two things about this latest furore seem fairly clear, and wearily predictable.

First, a constant flow of lurid allegations – some denied by Chris Pincher – will continue to damage the government’s reputation. In turn, the Conservatives’ popularity will slip further, and the opposition parties will enjoy something of a boost (if not to their poll standing, then certainly to their morale).

Such is the nature of this particular scandal that the drip-drip of allegations will depress all concerned, not least Mr Pincher, who is receiving medical attention while under investigation by the parliamentary Independent Complaints and Grievance scheme and possibly by the police. From these inquiries, which could take many months, may come a recommendation to parliament to sanction Mr Pincher. That, in turn, could be enough to trigger either his resignation or a petition for a by-election. Mr Pincher and his party may have decided long before that point that it might be best if he left the Commons.

The only good thing, from a Conservative point of view, about a by-election in Mr Pincher’s Tamworth seat is that his majority there is so big (about 40 per cent) and the pro-Brexit sentiment so strong (67 per cent voted to leave the EU in 2016) that the government has a chance of holding it, with Labour a remote second-place challenger. But it would still be another distraction and an unpleasant experience.

The second obvious effect of the scandal is to raise, yet again, questions about the prime minister’s judgement. No 10 insists that the PM wasn’t aware of specifics when he promoted Mr Pincher in February: “At the time of the appointment the prime minister was not aware of any specific allegations being looked at” is the line from his spokesperson. “The prime minister was aware of media reports that others had seen over the years, and some allegations that were either resolved or did not proceed to a formal complaint.”

Such a guarded defence is allied to a ludicrous claim by Downing Street that something called “HR law” meant the prime minister was virtually compelled to employ Mr Pincher in the role in question for fear of prosecution (under a presumably non-existent law concerning the prime minister’s clear and absolute power to hire and fire).

These statements only serve to suggest that the prime minister was well aware of Mr Pincher’s reputation and of past allegations against him. Why, Mr Johnson even gave him an epithet – “Pincher by name, Pincher by nature” – yet still promoted him to deputy chief whip, a role that involved dealing with complaints and represented a key position in the new post-Partygate Downing Street team.

Once again, it seems the prime minister cares little about the personal morality of those closest to him politically, and his many enemies will find little comfort in this, or in his apparent reluctance to do anything more than the absolute minimum to reprimand Mr Pincher.

Looking over their shoulder at the opinion poll ratings and recent local and parliamentary by-elections, many Tories must be losing hope that they will ever “draw a line” under the party’s never-ending mishaps and missteps with Mr Johnson in charge; every week there’s a new scandal, and every week the party edges closer to losing power.

The minimum any government should offer a nation is competence. In strategy, policy, leadership and integrity, the current government is visibly failing to reach that minimum, much to the despair of its supporters.

As long-standing Johnson-sceptic Roger Gale remarks, “We cannot go on like this.” In the coming months, the Commons privileges committee will hold yet another investigation, this time into whether the prime minister knowingly misled parliament, with the prospect of Mr Johnson being sanctioned and suspended from the Commons as a consequence. Many of Mr Gale’s colleagues, surveying the mounting chaos, will conclude that they don’t want to wait for that final humiliation to arrive.