Does the Tory exodus from Westminster mean there’s a Labour landslide ahead?

Rishi Sunak has suffered another blow as a member of his cabinet became the 65th Tory MP to announce he will stand down at the election. Chris Heaton-Harris thanked his leader, but his decision will not help a wounded PM, writes Kate Devlin

Northern Ireland secretary Chris Heaton-Harris has announced he will not seek re-election (PA)

Earlier this month, the prime minister suffered two defections to Labour in as many weeks, while his MPs keep announcing that they won’t stand at the next election. It all makes it very difficult for a Tory leader trying to prepare for an election.

Why has Chris Heaton-Harris decided to stand down?

The Northern Ireland secretary said in a letter to Rishi Sunak that he thought the time was right to look for some “new challenges” after 24 years as an MP. He did express his loyalty, however, telling the PM that he would campaign for the party at the election.

He also spoke of how proud he was of their work together, including on the Windsor Framework. This helped pave the way for the restoration of power-sharing in Northern Ireland, which will be seen as Heaton-Harris’s main achievement in office, although critics argue that, as a keen Brexiteer, he was at least partly responsible for the problems with the Northern Ireland border and a dysfunctional relationship with Europe.

Is this a record number of Tory MPs not standing?

No. As of 19 May, 65 Tory MPs have said they will stand down. Seventy-five Conservative MPs indicated that they were standing down before Tony Blair won his landslide majority in 1997. That result was a disaster for the Conservatives, leaving them out of power for 13 years. However, Westminster insiders believe that the party could already have overtaken that unfortunate record, with more MPs planning to leave though they have not yet formally announced their intention to do so.

Political parties traditionally see a number of their politicians call it a day at the start of the short campaign, when the general election is officially called.

Will Heaton-Harris continue as a cabinet minister?

There is no suggestion that Sunak has any desire to replace his Northern Ireland secretary with just months to go before an election. The job has long been a difficult one. And even the Windsor Framework has failed to solve some of the more long-running problems, including NHS waiting lists.

Putting someone into the cabinet at this late date would also risk exacerbating the tensions that already exist within his party. Many loyal Sunak-ites would love to finish their careers in the cabinet, but some on the right of the party already complain that the PM has failed to reach out.

Many Tory MPs believe their party is in a similar cycle to the one it experienced just before Tony Blair won a landslide victory in 1997 (PA)

Will there be a battle to replace him?

In a word, yes. Even with Labour this far ahead in the polls, a majority of 26,000 is not to be sniffed at. In fact, his seat in Daventry is considered one of the safest Conservative seats in the country. You can expect a fierce battle by ambitious would-be Tory MPs to become the candidate there. Power-hungry politicians will remember that now could be a good time to be an opposition MP, with depleted numbers on their own side offering a potentially fast track to the shadow cabinet.

What does it tell us about the general election result?

Many Tory MPs at Westminster are convinced that the party is in a similar cycle to the one it experienced between 1995 and 1997, and that we are heading for a large Labour victory at the election. The fact that 65 Tory MPs have already said that they’re standing down will do nothing to disabuse the public – or indeed the Labour Party – of that notion.