By-election bonanza could bring a record-breaking night of politics

Constituency opinion polls and the odds offered by the bookmakers all suggest that a political earthquake could be at hand, writes Sean O’Grady

The Tories could lose three seats in Thursday’s triple whammy of by-elections (Jeff Overs/BBC/PA/via Reuters)

This week’s three parliamentary by-elections should yield a cornucopia of psephological and political delights – though not for Rishi Sunak, who faces losing what should be three safe Conservative seats. Indeed, the outcome of the contests in Uxbridge and South Ruislip (formerly Boris Johnson’s seat), Somerset and Frome (after the resignation of David Warburton in disgrace) and Selby and Ainsty (incumbent Nigel Adams quit in sympathy with Johnson) could be quite the humiliation for the prime minister.

Constituency opinion polls and the odds offered by the bookmakers all suggest that a political earthquake could be at hand. The only caveat to this is that such is the state of public confidence in the government that a disaster is “priced in”. Thus, the real surprise would be if the Tories actually managed to hang on to even one of their safest seats. As parliament rises for its recess, Sunak and his colleagues will be glad to see the end of this political season.

What is likely to happen?

It is widely assumed that the Tories will lose all three – Somerton and Frome to the Liberal Democrats, and the other two to Labour – and the only question is by how much. We could be in for some record-breaking numbers. In Selby, Labour will be looking to exceed the astonishing swing they achieved in the Dudley West by-election in 1994, in the high noon of New Labour – a 29.1 per cent switch. It’s unlikely to be repeated, but any sort of swing around the 20 per cent mark would demolish the Tory majority of 33,395, and constitute a record showing in terms of absolute majorities for Labour.

It seems as if Keir Starmer will be able to emulate some of Tony Blair’s results, and perhaps do even better than the best swings achieved in the current parliament – at Chester last December (13.7 per cent) and the 10 per cent or so seen recently in Stretford and West Lancashire (albeit these were safe Labour seats).

Ed Davey and his team have some recent records to bust: the 34.2 per cent swing from the Tories in North Shropshire in December 2021, the second-best result of its kind. They’ll be looking to overturn a majority of 19,213, which will be the third largest they’ve smashed (after Tiverton, and Christchurch in 1993).

Is this unprecedented?

You have to go back to Harold Wilson’s beleaguered administration in 1968 to find a government losing three seats in one day, but that was a Labour government succumbing to a Tory attack.

Losing three in one day has never happened to a Conservative government. Even pairs of simultaneous losses by a Conservative administration are uncommon; Johnson lost a brace last year, in Tiverton then Wakefield; John Major lost two on one day in 1991, one each to Labour (Langbaurgh) and the Liberal Democrats (Kincardine and Deeside); Edward Heath lost two to the Liberals in 1973 (Ripon and Ely); and Labour took two from Harold Macmillan in 1962 (Glasgow Woodside and Dorset South).

Of course, there have been many more huge upsets, including losses to the Liberals, SDP, Lib Dems and Ukip. The thing that will concern Tory party managers is the willingness of voters to switch directly to Labour and overturn huge Tory majorities – that is quite rare, and a worrying omen.

Are there other records to be broken?

Yes. Selby and Ainsty and Somerton and Frome, two of the safest Tory seats nationwide, present the possibility of some of the biggest collapses in the Tory vote. The Lib Dems could do it in Somerset, but Labour has a tougher task in Yorkshire, as their candidate would have to beat the 31.7 percentage point drop in the Tory vote achieved in Rochdale in 1958.

What is the Tories’ greatest fear?

Tactical voting. There have been distinct signs in previous by-elections, and perhaps in some local elections, that Liberal Democrat, Labour and Green voters are prepared to put their usual loyalty aside and “lend” their votes to the candidate most likely to unseat the Conservative.

Such an effect has been seen most obviously in recent times in Tiverton, in North Shropshire, and in Chesham and Amersham, where the Labour vote collapsed and much of it transferred to the Liberal Democrats (with the Lib Dems returning the favour elsewhere). However, the effect was also visible in more recent by-elections with big swings in seats that nevertheless didn’t change hands – such as Old Bexley and Sidcup, where an impressive 10-point swing to Labour was assisted by some Lib Dem defections.

Such tactical voting will cost the Conservatives safe seats where the opposition was previously divided; it is certainly more of a negative vote against the government than any positive endorsement of the others. Nevertheless, it amounts to a potential “pincer” movement of the kind last seen in the 1997 and 2001 elections.

Will the Tories panic?

Certainly. After all, a year ago, the spectacular loss of Tiverton to the Liberal Democrats – and to a lesser extent, Wakefield to Labour – hastened Johnson’s spectacular demise, coming after disastrous local election results and mediocre opinion polling. If anything, Sunak finds himself in an even more vulnerable position.

Is there much more of this to come?

Yes. Nadine Dorries has promised to step down in Mid Bedfordshire, and there’s a by-election petition under way in Rutherglen and Hamilton South. Sanctioned for breaking lockdown rules, local MP Margaret Ferrier was elected for the SNP but might stand again as an independent; either way, the marginal looks like an easy win for Labour. So, too, does Mid Bedfordshire, unless opposition parties split the anti-Tory vote. It’s also possible that some more Tory MPs will quit as a kind of protest at the state of the party.

Does this mean there’ll be a Labour government next year?

Of course not. Many governments have recovered from spectacular by-election defeats and gone on to win the next election. Politics is full of surprises.