The paradox at the heart of how Britons feel about Brexit

‘Bregret’ has never seemed more widespread among the population – but there is little appetite for a fresh referendum in the short term, writes Sean O’Grady

Many feel that Brexit is not yet ‘done’ (Getty)

Seven years after the 2016 EU referendum, and almost four years after the UK left the EU, the public mood on Brexit has moved markedly in a more pro-European direction. “Bregret” about the decision among Leave and Remain voters has been growing, and many feel that the original decision to leave the EU was a mistake and that the government has not been handling the issue well.

The latest YouGov poll shows that, by 46 per cent to 36 per cent, the British electorate feels that there should be another EU referendum in the next ten years – though there is little appetite for having one in the short term.

So do the British want to return to the EU, or not?

There is a paradox here. “Bregret” has never been higher nor more widespread among the population; more people think Brexit is a mistake than not; and we want to turn the clock back. Half of the population say that were the EU referendum taking place now, they would vote to remain. Three in ten, or 30 per cent, say they would vote to leave, with 20 per cent don’t knows. This gives a headline voting intention of 63 per cent to 37 per cent. In 2016 the nation famously voted by 52 per cent to 48 per cent to get out.

However, despite this wave of regret mixed with Euro-enthusiasm, only 26 per cent of respondents are in such a hurry that they want a referendum on the matter before the end of 2023. It’s very much a long-term view – 46 per cent think one should be held within a decade, but a still substantial 36 per cent oppose this.

The common sense solution to the conundrum is that the public, whatever regrets they harbour about the past, simply cannot stomach another noisy, bitterly divisive and probably inconclusive result. Some may also feel that 10 years or so is a fair enough interval to give the Brexit project a chance to turn into a success.

Why has public opinion shifted against Brexit?

The perceived benefits, which varied a good deal depending on which Brexiteer was and is doing the talking, have arguably not materialised, or, more charitably, have been camouflaged by the depressing economic impact of the Covid pandemic and the war in Ukraine. There have been few obvious big gains, and some of the much-vaunted replacement trade deals, with the US and China, seem a long way distant.

A more fundamental factor is demographics. Enthusiasm for Brexit was skewed very heavily towards the older generations, and, with the passage of time, there has obviously been somewhat of a structural change in the composition of the British electorate. Indeed, such has been the shift that the 52-48 split in 2016 would now be reversed even if no one changed their minds. Of course, generally, people grow more small-c conservative as they get older, but this doesn’t necessarily happen with Brexit, and the younger cohort of voters is so radically pro-EU the traditional drift to the right with age would be quite modest.

Could there be an early referendum?

No. It’s not actually what people want, according to the polling, and none of the main political parties is promising it – not even the Liberal Democrats. Proponents argue that Labour would attract more “Rejoin” voters but the truth is that the prospect of another acrimonious and disruptive national debate might deter many more. Keir Starmer, helped by the perceived failures of Brexit, has made good progress in the red wall seats and would be reluctant to jeopardise that by allowing the Tories to run scare stories about Turkey joining the EU and the UK losing the pound. From the polling evidence, it appears that a “time machine” proposition to just go back and undo the 2016 vote and restore the status quo ante would be wildly popular. Sadly, that’s impossible. For now, the Brexit issue has been euthanised.

Might Keir Starmer execute another U-turn?

Probably not, given the potential public reaction. He would also, if elected, have to spend most of his time in government negotiating the reversal of Brexit, an immense task that might end up in failure at a referendum on the terms of re-entry. Some warm words in the manifesto and an agreement on veterinary checks are the most we can expect.

What would a referendum ask?

Exactly. We’ve been here before. A consultative simple Rejoin/Stay Out choice would say nothing about the actual terms of entry when the outcome of negotiations cannot be known. As with the original Brexit, rejoining would mean different things to different people. For example, would it mean adopting the euro and abolishing the pound? Logically, there should then be a second referendum on any treaty deal Starmer would potentially return from Brussels with. This may be much less advantageous and less popular than the deal with all its opt-outs Britain enjoyed before 2016.