Can MPs still stop a no-deal Brexit after their Commons defeat?
Politics Explained: Oliver Letwin says he ‘can’t currently think’ of what to do next – but other opponents of a crash-out departure are not so gloomy
Oliver Letwin, the Conservative big brain behind the bid to block a no-deal Brexit, sounded like a lottery winner who had lost his golden ticket after defeat on Wednesday.
The Tory rebel could not have been gloomier after MPs threw out the cross-party attempt to seize control of the Commons agenda – telling the country his final hope had gone up in smoke.
“I have really struggled very hard to think of every available opportunity and I can’t currently think of any more,” Sir Oliver lamented.
The dejection surprised many, who believed Wednesday was merely the first sniping ahead of bigger battles to come, so is the former Cameron ally correct?
The first point is that everyone agrees it will be more difficult to prevent a determined new prime minister chucking Britain off the cliff than when Theresa May made the same threat.
Then, the mechanism was the requirement for amendable motions each time the Brexit deal was put before MPs – allowing the Commons to legislate against a crash-out.
Now, there is no prospect of Boris Johnson (if he wins) agreeing a new deal, which means MPs would be shut out of the process. And, remember, he has vowed: “We will leave the EU on 31 October, deal or no deal.”
But... also remember that the speaker, John Bercow, has made clear he will help MPs to find another way, perhaps allowing an emergency debate to be turned into a platform for passing a law against a no deal.
Furthermore, Rory Stewart gained 19 votes in the first round of the leadership contest, on an anti-no-deal ticket – suggesting there are more Tory MPs willing to side with Sir Oliver when the cliff-edge nears. Only nine did so on Wednesday.
Also, there is the nuclear option of moderate Tories toppling their own government by supporting a no-confidence vote in the autumn, probably triggering a general election.
None other than Philip Hammond, the chancellor, put rocket boosters up this possibility, when he revealed he was ready to do it. Dominic Grieve, a Final Say supporter, said the same.
Mr Stewart is already making threats to “bring down” Mr Johnson if necessary and, after the Tory defections to Change UK, the government’s majority is a puny five.
So, Sir Oliver needs to cheer up – it is definitely not game over.
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