Are we failing to notice that we are heading for no-deal Brexit?

This year, the shelves emptied and trade evaporated because of a hidden virus – next year, the cause would be man-made, writes Rob Merrick

Talks between EU and Britain are mired in acrimony (iStock)

The threat was serious and growing all the time, but few people noticed and nothing was done until it was too late to change course.

No, I’m not talking about the government’s failure to stockpile protective equipment and testing kits for the looming coronavirus pandemic – but something barely spotted because of that very pandemic.

Over the last few days, the chances of the UK crashing out of the EU single market and customs union without a trade deal have surged, with the negotiations in paralysis amid a bitter war of words.

On Friday, Michel Barnier, Brussels’ ultra-suave chief negotiator, let rip at Downing Street, accusing it of refusing to play ball with the aim, apparently, to run down the clock to the 31 December cliff edge.

He revealed his fury that No 10 had refused to propose a new fisheries agreement – which the EU insists must come first – and that commitments to prevent a hard Irish border are being forgotten.

And that’s only the start of the chasm between the two sides, with the UK desire to break free of EU standards, the role of the European Court of Justice and security co-operation other big stumbling blocks.

It was striking that No 10 did not try to disguise the acrimony, accusing Brussels of failing to dignify the UK with the sort of trade deal enjoyed by “other sovereign countries”.

The bottom line is that there are only two more rounds of talks – by video link of course – before the end of June deadline for agreeing an extension to avoid a crash out from the transition period.

Unless the returning Boris Johnson performs the face-losing U-turn of sanctioning that extension, it is now odds on that – in just eight months’ time – the UK will be out in the cold, with no trade or security deal.

Now, the economic damage from a no deal suddenly appears smaller in comparison with the unprecedented whack from coronavirus, forecast to be an extraordinary 35 per cent GDP loss in a single quarter.

Nevertheless, it was once expected to deliver a recession all by itself, and remains a huge danger to business and job prospects now shattered by the lockdown.

You might remember that, only last year, Johnson claimed the no-deal risk was “absolutely zero” – but, surprise, surprise, he now appears set on that very course.

The Vote Leave crowd running No 10 is hell bent on the hardest of Brexits and has decided, perhaps, that the damage will at least be disguised by the even greater harm from Covid-19.

In 2020, the shelves emptied and trade dried up because of a hidden virus, In 2021, the cause would be man-made.