Will the next prime minister be able to negotiate a new Brexit deal?

Politics Explained: Brexit may prove just as toxic to future Tory leaders

After weeks of candid interviews, kitchen photo shoots and “wide-ranging speeches”, the Tory leadership circus is now beginning in earnest.

Theresa May’s premiership is hanging by a thread after her “bold offer” on Brexit, which included the prospect of a second referendum, drew a furious backlash among MPs and prompted the resignation of cabinet Brexiteer Andrea Leadsom.

The beleaguered prime minister, who has survived defeat after defeat, appears to have finally run out of road. Senior Conservatives are openly talking about replacing her, and Westminster is waiting with bated breath for the results of her meeting with Tory backbench leader Sir Graham Brady on Friday. The problem for Boris Johnson and other would-be prime ministers is they will face the same challenges as Ms May on entering Downing Street.

The Brexit chaos will not end with Ms May’s departure, and it will undoubtedly prove just as toxic to another Conservative leader. Top Tories know this, which is why they have not moved against the prime minister already. But Ms Leadsom’s dramatic resignation is an attempt to distance herself from the prime minister’s Brexit deal – and to steal a march on her leadership rivals.

The lack of a Commons majority makes it difficult for the government to pursue any Brexit course, even without the fierce divisions between MPs. And that is assuming the new leader can even secure changes to Ms May’s Brexit deal, which for all its faults is still the only deal on the table.

Brussels washed its hands of the talks months ago and has stood firm on its stance that Ms May’s Brexit package cannot be renegotiated. Ireland’s deputy prime minister, Simon Coveney, was clear at the weekend that the “personality might change but the facts don’t” and warned that the risk of a no-deal Brexit has never been greater.

Graphic by Statista

He said: “For Britain, in many ways it’s been about party politics and personalities – and many people seem to think that Britain would have got a much better deal if only they had a tougher prime minister. In my view that just is a fundamental misunderstanding of how the European Union operates.”

The fallout from the European election results next week could mean the EU being prepared to devote less focus on Brexit going forward, he said. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has also repeatedly ruled out a renegotiation or even a longer extension beyond 31 October.

He is open to movement on the political declaration covering the future relationship between the UK and the EU but there will be no change on the withdrawal agreement, which covers citizens’ rights, the Irish border and the divorce bill.

Brexiteers insist Ms May should have been tougher with Brussels, and a true Eurosceptic – rather than a Remain-backer – would have negotiated a better deal. Frontrunner Mr Johnson is among those who believe he can get a better deal and bring it through the Commons by the autumn. It will be interesting to see whether his confidence wavers if he is confronted with the reality of the task ahead.