What happens next after Boris Johnson’s Brexit ultimatum to Brussels?

Ashley Cowburn looks at how the next few weeks could play out now the PM has presented his deal to the European Union

(REUTERS)

Addressing Tory delegates in his first speech as party leader, Boris Johnson laid out his “take it or leave it” ultimatum to Brussels, kicking off a critical month in the Brexit process.

“There is now very little time in which to negotiate a new agreement between the UK and the EU under Article 50,” the PM later wrote in his letter to Brussels. “We need to get this done before the European Council.”

Commons showdown: 3 October

Fresh from the Conservative Party conference, the prime minister is expected to deliver a statement to MPs in the Commons, outlining No 10’s next steps in the Brexit process.

Unless by this point the EU have already dismissed Johnson’s plans, expect frantic negotiations between London and Brussels in the coming days. Mr Johnson said yesterday “ten days should be enough” if a deal is to be done.

EU council summit: 17-18 October

Expect the agenda for this summit to be decided ahead of the EU leaders arriving in Brussels – hence the prime minister’s own 10-day deadline. Over these two days in autumn, the prime minister will have his last chance to sign off an agreement, before parliament requests his office to seek a Brexit negotiating extension.

Queen’s Speech: 14 October

A Queen’s Speech – setting out the government’s legislative programme and domestic agenda for the coming year – is technically off the cards given the Supreme Court ruling last week that Mr Johnson’s prorogation of five weeks was unlawful.

But No 10 has announced that the prime minister will take another shot at suspending parliament next week, in order to have a Queen’s Speech on 14 October.

However, this time the suspension of the Commons will be for several days, rather than several weeks, something the Supreme Court would find acceptable as it is in line with precedent.

Brexit Extension Act: 19 October

If no deal has been agreed by this critical deadline then Mr Johnson will be forced by law to seek an extension to the negotiations. The Benn Act outlines a letter that should be sent from Downing Street to EU leaders, requesting a Brexit delay until January 2020.

The prime minister has consistently said he will obey the law, but has repeatedly refused to engage with direct questions about respecting the Benn Act, which of course he has branded the “surrender act”.

If he does ignore the act, expect a battle at the Supreme Court to immediately follow. Or, as the ex-attorney general Dominic Grieve has argued, for the Queen to dismiss the PM.

Halloween Brexit deadline: 31 October

The extension secured by former prime minister Theresa May – one that sealed her fate – will be a critical date in Johnson’s premiership. Since running for the leadership in the summer, the Tory leader’s key message has to been to sever the UK’s ties with bloc by the 31 October.

If he fails to secure a deal, the Benn Act ensures he cannot deliver on his 31 October promise – avoid a no-deal scenario on Halloween.

But if the PM defies expectations and reaches an agreement with Brussels that the House of Commons finds acceptable, it is possible Mr Johnson will agree to a “technical extension”, so there is time for key pieces of legislation, and for the European parliament to ratify the deal.

Winter general election

There has not been a winter election since 1974, but most insiders in Westminster expect the British public to head to the polls in the coming months. If a Brexit extension is secured, avoiding a no-deal exit, Jeremy Corbyn has said he will back an election at this point.