Boris Johnson has quit – who is the favourite to succeed him as Conservative Party leader?

Penny Mordaunt is currently leading the way with bookmakers, writes Sean O’Grady

Mordaunt, the minister of state for trade, is 4-1 with the bookies (PA)

It’s often said that if you want to know what’s really going on, ask a bookie. Of course it’s not invariably true, or else everyone would always know the winner of the Derby, or the Champions League, or, indeed, any forthcoming Conservative leadership contest.

The turf accountants, like media pundits, have got things badly wrong in the past, notably the 2017 general election (the May landslide that never was) and the 2005 Conservative leadership election (where David Davis slipped and let David Cameron seize the prize). Indeed looking for the victor this time is more hazardous than usual because its a wide-open field, with no clear challenger emerging. But, as Peter Snow used to say, it’s just a bit of fun… so here we go.

The favourite is someone who (at the time of writing) hasn’t been that prominent a rebel: Penny Mordaunt. She’s at 4-1, or so, just ahead of Rishi Sunak with most bookies. As minister of state for international trade and, briefly defence secretary, Mordaunt is liked and respected around the party, is a 2016 Leaver, and a Royal Navy reservist, which will endear her to the grassroots in particular.

Almost first out of the traps was Rishi Sunak, on about 5-1 but drifting, (while Mordaunt’s odds are shortening). Sunak’s resignation on principle may restore some of the huge ground lost in April after the news about his wife Akshata Murty's non-dom status became public (a status since given up). But the days when he was a shoo-in are surely gone. The odds look flattering, possibly reflecting name recognition.

Ponying up third favourite is Ben Wallace, the defence secretary. Early moves to defend Ukraine have helped him garner a reputation for wisdom and action, and, like Mordaunt, a background in the armed forces does him no harm. Competent, disciplined and unshowy, he seems an antidote to the wayward Johnson. Like Mordaunt and some others, he’s not that well known outside the Westminster bubble, but respected by the party. He’s at about 6-1, and has come in progressively in recent months.

Liz Truss, still loyal to the PM and conveniently abroad, is said to have had a shadow leadership campaign running for some time. The foreign secretary seems happy to be all things to all men and women, which is a winning plan provided she is not subjected to particularly intense scrutiny. But she will be. Like Sunak, her moment may have passed. She’s around 8-1.

First-mover advantage doesn’t seem to have given much to Sajid Javid, who is on a tempting 8-1, giving him about the same chance of running the country as the loyalist new chancellor, Nadhim Zahawi.

Perhaps the most disappointing showings come from the two leading figures who’ve stayed away from the Boris Johnson show for some time. Jeremy Hunt, who the public often mention and whose qualities and profile is relatively well-known, languishes on longish odds of 10-1.

So also indeed does Tom Tugendhat, the bright young hope and chair of the foreign affairs committee. No doubt increased exposure if he did throw his name forward would narrow those odds considerably. The party might conceivably turn to Tugendhat if they wanted to skip a generation and present a truly fresh, unsullied face and name to the voters.

If the party wants to stick to some older hands, then Dominic Raab is available at 25-1, and fellow past contender Michael Gove is on 20-1. Should chaos overtake the party, either man might serve as kind of souped-up caretaker to nurse the Tories up to the next election.

Though I’m hardly qualified to offer tips, I couldn’t really recommend a punt on a Theresa May comeback at 100-1, or “prime minister Nadine Dorries”, even at 500-1. Then again, Jeremy Corbyn began his campaign for Labour leader in 2015 at 100-1, and Donald Trump for president started at 150-1 with William Hill.