Is Boris Johnson losing the red wall seats that he gained in 2019?

The Conservatives are doing worse in the constituencies that they won for the first time at the last election according to an opinion poll, writes John Rentoul

Tainted love?: Boris Johnson in Middlesbrough during the 2019 election campaign (Getty)

A Deltapoll survey carried out in the 57 constituencies gained by the Conservatives at the last election suggests that Labour is doing better in these battleground seats than the national average.

The poll, carried out for the Mail on Sunday, suggests that in these seats there has been a swing from the Tories to Labour since the general election of 14 per cent, compared with an 8 per cent swing nationally. This may not be particularly surprising, in that we might expect those voters who have only recently detached themselves from their Labour loyalty to be less secure in their attachment to the Conservatives, but it is a warning sign for Boris Johnson.

The finding has to be treated with caution, because the sample was relatively small: just 612 voters interviewed online between 23 and 30 December. This means the margin of error is larger than that for a normal national poll, which would usually have a sample of between 1,000 and 2,000 people. However, 600 is acceptable, and enough to suggest that there is a genuine difference in Labour’s favour between new Tory seats and the national picture (for which Deltapoll had a sample size of 1,567).