Have we seen the last of Boris Johnson?

Sean O’Grady looks at what could happen when the findings of the privileges committee are debated in parliament on Monday

The prospects for a Boris Johnson comeback are looking bleak (AFP/Getty)

The publication of the report on Boris Johnson by the House of Commons committee of privileges is hardly the end of the matter. Contrary to some reportage, but in line with convention, the report of the committee and its recommendations will be debated in the chamber of the Commons on Monday.

It will be yet another opportunity for a further set-piece battle in the Conservative civil war. With so much at stake – not least Johnson’s reputation and the unity of the governing party – it promises to be an unusually spicy start to the week in Westminster.

What will happen on Monday?

A motion will be presented by the committee, and there will probably be quite a lengthy debate. The leader of the House of Commons, Penny Mordaunt, has said the motion will be voted on and will be amenable. As is customary, it is formally a free vote, so there should be no strong whipping by the parties, and a one-line whip will be issued by the Tories, meaning participation in the vote isn’t obligatory.

Mordaunt may have been giving a bit of an oblique steer when she told MPs that “we are talking about people who are friends and colleagues. It will be a painful process and a sad process for all of us, the task that we face on Monday. But all of us must do what we think is right, and others must leave us alone to do so.” She added that it was “worth reminding” other MPs that the committee’s job is to defend the House and the rights and privileges of members.

The convention is that a privileges committee report is nodded through, but over the years some have been the subject of attempts to weaken the penalties proposed. However, there will be no repeat of the ill-starred effort led by Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg in late 2021, when they attempted to save former minister Owen Paterson from parliamentary suspension and coupled it with a crude attempt to change the rules. That botch-up led to scandal, and a lost by-election, and was a significant event in the downfall of Johnson. The ironies are obvious.

What’s the best-case scenario for Johnson?

Johnson’s allies may try to get the whole report thrown out, but given that almost all of the opposition MPs will support it, together with a substantial number of Tories, the findings will be agreed in full.

It doesn’t seem sensible to try to amend the hypothetical 90-day suspension, which is now unenforceable after Johnson’s resignation from parliament. There may be some scope for his allies to plead that the former prime minister should after all be given his complimentary parliamentary pass, meaning he can come and go around the Palace of Westminster unaccompanied and as he pleases.

Denying free access to parliament is an unusually harsh penalty, but that didn’t stop it from being applied it to former speaker John Bercow, or to Keith Vaz.

Keeping the right to a pass would be regarded as a victory, which is a bit sad. What would be more encouraging for Johnson would be a solid bloc of Tories siding with him, say 50 or 100, preferably including some to whom he hasn’t personally given or promised honours. Going by past rebellions, it is likely to be nearer to 30. Beyond that, there’s some suggestion that many Tories will simply abstain, and it will be interesting to see what Rishi Sunak and other big beasts decide to do.

What’s the worst-case scenario for Sunak?

See above. If a majority of his own MPs either vote against the report and its sanctions or abstain in a kind of mass silent protest, then it might be seen as a bit of an embarrassment. That said, if the force of the report helps to hasten the end of Johnson’s career and render him irrelevant, then it will surely all have been worth it.

Sadly for Sunak, Johnson still has a knack for attracting attention, and a self-exculpatory memoir is due in the summer. Then there’s the Tory conference, with its fringe events, which could see more of the campaign to “Bring Back Boris”. And that’s not to mention the two (or more) damaging by-elections.

So is this the end of Johnson’s career?

The report is potentially fatal because it was so much worse than expected, and because it has focused Tory thoughts on the circumstances of Johnson’s defenestration last year, and on just how much of a liability he has become. On the other hand, he is quite popular among a swathe of party members, who cherish sweet memories of the victories of 2016 and 2019 and Johnson’s boisterous style of campaigning.

Some safe constituency might well like to adopt him as a candidate but Conservative HQ would have to approve it formally and before the general election. If that doesn’t happen, and if a leadership vacancy arises while the party is in opposition, then Johnson won’t be able to run. There’s an outside chance he could stand and run as an independent Conservative, or he could defect in order to team up with Nigel Farage. Either of those would be even less of a ticket back to the top. It looks bleak.

Is it OK to call the committee of privileges inquiry a ‘kangaroo court’?

That’s a live debate and one in which the speaker, Lindsay Hoyle, may have to adjudicate. There’s been some suggestion that privy counsellors shouldn’t use such a term but other MPs can, which seems illogical.

Free speech dictates that MPs have to be able to criticise any report from a parliamentary committee, but to impugn the personal probity of MPs and apply undue, intimidatory pressure probably amounts to contempt in itself. Nadine Dorries’ thinly veiled Twitter threats about deselection for “anti-Boris” Tory MPs might fall into that category. If she attempted to repeat them in the chamber, she might well find herself ejected by the speaker.