Beware, Boris Johnson, political defections can destabilise a tottering leadership

‘Crossing the floor’ from Conservative to Labour is a rare event, writes Sean O’Grady

Tory defector Christian Wakeford sits behind the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, left, as Boris Johnson speaks during PMQs (AFP/Getty)

The dramatic defection of Christian Wakeford from the Conservatives to Labour is fairly easily explained, by close reference to the psephology of his parliamentary seat, Bury South.

Wakeford took the formerly Labour seat at the 2019 election, with a very slim majority of 402, or 0.8 per cent, aided a little by the intervention of the former Labour MP, Ivan Lewis, standing as an independent and securing some 2.7 per cent of the vote. (Lewis had been suspended by Labour in 2017 after allegations of sexual misconduct, accusations he has denied, He later resigned from the party).

Given the trends in the opinion polls, the chances are growing that the seat would return to Labour at the next general election, though it will be redrawn to account for population movements in the area. Though a fairly safe seat since 1997, it had been much more of a classic Con/Lab marginal in the 1980s.