How likely is a Final Say referendum on Brexit now?

With a no-deal Brexit on 31 October extremely unlikely, there are now two possible routes to a people’s vote

Marchers demand a Final Say referendum in London (Angela Christofilou/The Independent)

A second referendum on Brexit is becoming more likely again. Or, at least, the probabilities may not have changed much in the past week but they can now be seen more clearly. The most likely outcome this month is that the date of our planned departure from the EU will be postponed by another three months.

In fact, two things have become clearer. One is that Boris Johnson is unlikely to secure a deal that is acceptable both to the EU and to a majority in the House of Commons. The other is that if he cannot get a deal he will send the letter asking for an extension that he is required to send by the law passed by parliament.

The idea that the prime minister would find some way around the law has finally met reality in the form of a government submission to the Scottish courts. There shouldn’t have been any doubt that the UK government would respect the law, and now there isn’t.

That means a no-deal Brexit on 31 October is most unlikely. It could happen only if there is some undiscovered loophole in the law, or if the EU refuses to agree to an extension. EU leaders are reluctant to force us out if we are unable to make a decision ourselves; while theories about Victor Orban of Hungary vetoing an extension misunderstand where his interests lie.

George Osborne, former chancellor and now editor of the Evening Standard, thinks that Johnson will reluctantly ask for an extension and seek to hold a referendum. That would be the most direct route to a Final Say for the British people.

There are problems with this option, however. What would the question be? Johnson would have no deal ready to put to the people, and parliament would not allow him to put a no-deal Brexit on the ballot paper.

The more likely course must be that Johnson will try again to call an election. Jeremy Corbyn has said his MPs will vote for it once an extension is secured, so Johnson could make a great show of reluctantly asking for and agreeing the extension – and immediately asking for another vote on an early election, which could be held on 28 November.

It would be a gamble. Some of the prime minister’s advisers believe Leave voters will blame the Brexit delay on a Remainer parliament and will rally behind him. But Nigel Farage thinks many of them will feel betrayed by Johnson’s failure to take us out, “deal or no deal”, on 31 October as promised. The Brexit Party leader still believes the prime minister will be forced to come begging to him for an electoral pact.

Who knows what the outcome of such an election might be? But there is a chance that the Conservatives would lose seven seats compared with 2017, which would be enough to allow Corbyn to become prime minister. And if that happens, Labour is pledged to hold a referendum within six months – and will have the support of the other opposition parties if needed.

Corbyn knows what the question would be on his referendum’s ballot paper: it would be a choice between Theresa May’s deal, with some added words about workers’ rights and a permanent customs union, and remaining in the EU.

So there are two routes to a Final Say referendum next year. Either Johnson decides he dare not risk an election, and that a referendum is his only way out, or Corbyn wins an election and carries out Labour’s policy of letting the people decide.