Has Boris Johnson recovered from the public backlash over the Dominic Cummings affair?

There are glimmers of hope for the PM, but he should still be worried. Once trust is lost, it’s difficult to regain, writes Andrew Grice

Anger over the scandal has started to dissipate but disappointment in the prime minister lingers (AFP/Getty)

Boris Johnson’s allies hoped the storm over allegations that Dominic Cummings breached the lockdown rules would soon blow itself out once the media spotlight moved on.

So far, they have been disappointed. Mr Johnson’s and his government’s ratings have continued to decline. According to Ipsos Mori, more people (43 per cent) now have an unfavourable view of Mr Johnson than a favourable one (39 per cent) for the first time since March. In April, 51 per cent were favourable and 31 per cent unfavourable.

Opinium found that Mr Johnson’s ratings flipped during the week the Cummings row dominated the media and have not recovered. Before the story broke, 45 per cent approved of the way the prime minister was handling his job and 39 per cent disapproved. Its latest figures show that 44 per cent disapprove and 37 per cent approve. Only a third of people (34 per cent) approve of the government’s handling of the coronavirus crisis, down from two-thirds (65 per cent) in March.

Opinium found that seven in 10 people (71 per cent) think Mr Cummings should be sacked, up slightly on the previous week, suggesting the public still feel strongly about the issue. According to YouGov, one in five (21 per cent) stuck to the lockdown rules less stringently in the week after the Cummings affair than in the previous week. Of this group, one in three – seven per cent of the total – mentioned Mr Cummings as part of the reason.

The election of Keir Starmer as Labour leader has helped his party profit from the government’s troubles. Opinium puts the Conservatives on 43 per cent and Labour on 40 per cent – Labour’s highest vote share since January 2019 and the Tories’ smallest lead since Mr Johnson became prime minister.

Mr Johnson’s decision to stand by his closest adviser may also have damaged him in the eyes of Tory party members. The prime minister slipped from first to fourth place in the ConservativeHome website’s monthly survey of members, behind Rishi Sunak, Michael Gove and Dominic Raab. Mr Johnson still has a net positive rating of 63 per cent, but it is down 20 points to its lowest figure since last September.

The polls suggest that confidence in the government’s response to the pandemic began to slip before the Cummings controversy, when it diluted its message in England from “stay at home” to the less clear “stay alert”. The affair seems to have compounded its trust problem.

Deborah Mattinson, a founding partner of the Britain Thinks strategic consultancy, which is tracking public opinion by asking 50 people to keep diaries, has detected four stages. At the start, people were “very worried and scared,” then “boredom and frustration” set in, before their “pent-up fury” turned to “anger” when it was ignited by the Cummings story. In the past week, that anger has dissipated a little, and turned to disappointment.

That offers a glimmer of hope for Mr Johnson and Mr Cummings, but they’ll be worried. Once lost, trust is very difficult to regain.