Delights behind the windows of Boris’s advent calendar

The prime minister will be in for a few little surprises if all goes according to Sean O’Grady’s forecasts

(AP/PA/Getty)

At this special time of year many of us will turn excitedly, as each brave new day dawns, to our advent calendar, opening the windows day-by-day to discover what prayer, novelty toy or tiny chocolate treat lies behind the cardboard flap. Such a lovely tradition. For Boris Johnson, though, the next few days and weeks will be far from merry; it will be a political advent calendar from hell. With a little poetic licence, let’s see what might lie ahead for the people’s prime minister in the run up to Christmas and beyond.

Tuesday 14 December: Cooey! It’s Steve Baker, David Davis and John Redwood leering out of the window, celebrating the worst parliamentary defeat in Johnson’s premiership. Who knows how many disgruntled Tory MPs will rebel, take the opportunity of a free hit and vote against the various plan B measures? It’s not a vote of confidence, so there’s no chance of the government falling, and, though humiliating for him, Johnson will easily win the votes with Labour support. But his impressive Commons working majority of about 80 will be turned upside down. It will be proof, were it needed, of his lack of authority over his own parliamentary party, many of whom now believe him to be hopelessly incompetent, socialistic or both. It also suggests he’ll need even more opposition help if he has to enforce more stringent rules or – dread the thought – a new lockdown. Labour has also made threatening noises about not backing mandatory vaccination.

Wednesday 15 December: Prime Minister’s Questions. Most of these matches are now easily won by Keir Starmer, who has at last developed a lighter touch and a little wit in his “forensic” questioning. Johnson has a catch-all answer to any “partygate” questions, which is that the cabinet secretary is looking into everything and he can’t add anything to that. He will also belittle Starmer for being “captain hindsight” and so devoted to trivia that he can’t bring himself to support the booster programme. If he’s desperate, he’ll throw in the usual jibe about the EU Medicines Agency. It’s all a bit Archie Rice, though. It’ll be infesting to see whether his backbenchers show up.

Thursday 16 December: Parliamentary by-election in North Shropshire. If, as the pundits predict, the Liberal Democrats overturn a 22,949 majority and take the seat, it’ll be one of the biggest by-election upsets since the Second World War – a swing of at least 26 per cent. If Johnson’s relationship with his party really is transactional, and he has clearly outlived his usefulness as a vote-winner, he won’t last long. In a sense, it will be his fourth “defeat” since the triumphant election in December 2019. The other three comprise: the loss of Chesham and Amersham in June to the Lib Dems on a 25 per cent swing; failing against expectations to win the by-election in Batley and Spen, held by Labour, and holding Old Bexley and Sidcup, but with a stonking 10 per cent swing to Labour.

Friday 17 December: The report by Simon Case, the cabinet secretary, into “partygate” is supposed to report by today, according to the gossip, because no one wants a sword of Damocles over them at Christmas. Johnson will suffer at least some criticism and a rebuke, and some of his staff, including director of communications Jack Doyle, may conclude they can no longer carry out their duties without derision and quit, following Allegra Stratton. Parliament breaks up for the festive season but politics will rumble on.

Sunday 19 December: Even in the digital age, the Sunday papers can still produce a story, and Dominic Cummings has repeatedly claimed embarrassing pictures of the Downing Street parties exist. This might be a good moment for someone to publish them.

Monday 20 December: Lord Geidt, Johnson’s independent adviser on standards, quits in protest, the second to do so in just over a year. Geidt complains that he he did not enjoy that essential relationship of openness and trust with the prime minister and therefore could no longer in all conscience discharge his responsibilities. Soon after, he takes up a new role at Buckingham Palace.

Tuesday 21 December: A little over a year since Johnson cancelled Christmas 2020, spiralling omicron cases and an NHS at the point of collapse will force him to announce once again: “Given the early evidence we have on this new variant of the virus, and the potential risk it poses, it is with a heavy heart that I must tell you we cannot continue with Christmas as planned.”

Wednesday 23 December: Graham Brady, chair of the backbench 1922 committee, announces he has now received the 55 letters required to trigger a vote of no confidence in the prime minister.

Thursday 24 December (Christmas Eve): Cabinet ministers threaten to quit unless Johnson declares his intention to step down.

Sunday 26 December (Boxing Day): Tidal wave of omicron prompts declaration of national emergency. Johnson declares willingness to stand own immediately and the deputy prime minister Dominic Raab takes over, pending a leadership election.

Tuesday 4 January 2022: The Commons reassembles and Jeremy Hunt, Liz Truss and Sajid Javid announce their campaigns.

Wednesday 5 January 2022: Johnson sells the rights to his memoirs for £2.5m and goes house-hunting.

Friday 5 February 2022: Hunt accepts the Queen’s commission to form a government. Steve Baker starts a new Tory splinter group.