Is the tide starting to turn for Joe Biden’s poll numbers?

Strong action over Ukraine – in conjunction with other western nations – and signs of an improving economy have helped the US president, writes Chris Stevenson

US president Joe Biden delivers the State of the Union address last week (Getty)

It is no secret that Joe Biden’s approval ratings have been in the doldrums for the last few months – but are we seeing the first shoots of a recovery?

An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll on Friday showed the proportion of Americans who believe the president is doing a good job sitting at 47 per cent, up eight points from the week before. When that data is broken down into specific issues such as Ukraine and the economy, the difference is even more stark.

A majority, 52 per cent, approve of how Mr Biden is handling the crisis in Ukraine, up from 34 per cent the previous week. Furthermore, 83 per cent of those surveyed support the tough economic sanctions imposed against Russia that the White House has helped to coordinate alongside other western nations – although 51 per cent of Americans still think Mr Biden’s decisions since becoming president have weakened the position of the US on the world stage, while 45 per cent believe he has strengthened its position.

On the economy, 45 per cent back Mr Biden’s handling of the economy, a nine-percentage-point increase week on week, with some positivity over the outlook recently. The US economy added 678,000 jobs in February, the best month for job growth since July 2021, according to figures released on Friday by the Bureau of Labour Statistics. The unemployment rate is now down to 3.8 per cent, the lowest level in around two years.

When it comes to Covid-19, the other long-term problem Mr Biden has been dealing with, there has also been an improvement, as some states have begun to remove mask mandates. Now, 55 per cent approve of the president’s handling of the pandemic, with 43 per cent disapproving, as opposed to late last month when only 47 per cent said they approved of it.

Alongside these factors, the bump in the polls can perhaps be attributed in part to Mr Biden’s recent State of the Union address, a national event watched by more than 37 million TV viewers according to Nielsen data (and probably many more via online streaming). That kind of exposure – for a speech that was generally well received – will give voters a better sense of the president’s thinking.

It should be noted that this is just one poll, although elements such as the wide support for the president’s economic actions in relation to Ukraine, and the jobs report, are likely to have an impact on future polls. A Rasmussen Reports survey released on the same day as the NPR/PBS poll showed that 55 per cent of respondents disapproved of Mr Biden’s performance, against 42 per cent who approved of it. But even in that poll, the number of people who said they “strongly approve” of his performance has inched up a couple of percentage points in recent weeks.

There are certainly signs that the president could see a sustained improvement in his poll numbers if the economy and Covid cases keep moving in the right direction, and if the White House continues to chime with the public mood when it comes to Ukraine. Democrats will hope that any such improvement lasts for as long as possible. However, it is true that increased partisanship in recent years – with views becoming further entrenched – may leave fewer true “independents” to try to convince of Mr Biden’s merits.

In any case, it appears that, at least for the moment, the president is getting some things right.