Will the Democrats’ surprise legislative win give them fresh momentum?

A deal between senators Joe Manchin and Chuck Schumer has provided a fillip to their party, writes Chris Stevenson

Democratic senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia (AP)

Democrats have been quick to accentuate the positives – both short and long term – of a surprise deal struck to resurrect some elements of Joe Biden’s legislative agenda. That includes climate provisions that advocates have said help keep the US in the global fight to deal with the environmental crisis.

“I’d say it’s somewhere between a surprise and a shock,” the Democratic senator from Connecticut, Chris Murphy, said of the deal around the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 – which also includes major investments in lowering drug pricing and closing tax loopholes for the wealthy.

The reason? Talks between West Virginia senator Joe Manchin, who has made a habit of holding up legislation, and the Democratic Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, had broken down in mid-July, with Manchin admitting that things had got “heated”. Manchin said he had told Schumer, in regard to rising inflation, that “the people of West Virginia cannot afford higher prices. They can’t afford higher gasoline prices, higher food prices.”

However, after the deal was agreed, the pair said in a statement: “The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 will make a historic down-payment on deficit reduction, to fight inflation, invest in domestic energy production and manufacturing, and reduce carbon emissions by roughly 40 per cent by 2030.”

The legislation still has to make it through Congress, but it would give the Democrats a win to push to the voters, and would renew their sense of direction, which was starting to appear faint amid Biden’s stagnating approval ratings, a shrinking economy, and a lack of legislation making it onto the president’s desk to sign into law.

“If you want to look at the big MO – the momentum – it is with us right now, and we’ve needed that,” Illinois representative Cheri Bustos told NBC News. “We needed a boost, and just from a mental perspective, we just have to start feeling like we’re getting some wins. I think we were down in the dumps.”

How much of a difference will it make? There is still plenty for the Democrats to worry about as the incumbent party of power, but this act will certainly give candidates something to focus on as they head into November’s midterms. It could potentially help some incumbents keep their seats, and stop the Republicans making big gains – dependent on its making it through Congress.

As for the GOP, some candidates will no doubt relish the fight against an act they can frame as a big tax-plus-spending package at a time of high inflation. Pushing back against higher spending and the further taxing of corporations is the meat and drink of the Republican cause, and the current economic climate will enable them to push the case that such measures could drive the country into recession.

It will be up to the voters to decide which party’s vision they back.