Attitudes toward illegal immigration are changing among Democrat voters

Joe Biden and his party may have to start moving away from the feelings of their supporter base if they want to try to capture independent voters, writes Chris Stevenson

Joe Biden has another problem to cope with ahead of the midterm elections in November (AP)

There has been little doubt about the priorities for the Biden administration recently – Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the economy and the Covid-19 pandemic – but immigration is an issue never too far from the minds of US voters.

Recently released polling from Gallup makes interesting reading for both parties. The thoughts of Republicans are not surprising, with 68 per cent of those asked worrying “a great deal” about illegal immigration. This is lower than the 76 per cent hight seen in 2021, but is still on the high end of what Gallup has previously recorded.

Overall, those Republicans who worry “a great deal” has risen from 29 per cent in 2001 – with a couple of big leaps just after the 2018 midterm elections (January 2019) and as Donald Trump was leaving office (January 2021). This has helped push the overall level of all those across America who worry “a great deal” about illegal immigration to 41 per cent, which is on the high end of Gallup’s historic ratings. (Although the issue sits in the lower half of voter concerns, with the economy and inflation sitting at the top.)

By contrast, the number of Democrats who worry “a great deal” about illegal immigration sits at 18 per cent, a slight increase from 2021, but far less than the 28 per cent highlighted by Gallup in 2018. However, those Democrats who care “not at all” about illegal immigration has jumped from 27 per cent in 2021 to 44 per cent now.

In most years from 2001 to 2014 the majority of Democrats were concerned a “great deal” or “a fair amount” about the issue but now the majority say they worry “a little” or “not at all” – a substantial change. That is compared to the expansion of the overall percentage of Republicans who are worried “a great deal” or “a fair amount” about illegal immigration from a little more than half in 2001 to almost 9 in 10 in 2022.

The problem for Biden – and the Democrats at large – ahead of the latest midterm elections in November is that concern about illegal immigration is edging up among independent voters. The percentage of independents who worry “a great deal” about illegal immigration has increased from 30 per cent in 2018 (a near-low in Gallup’s records) to 39 per cent in 2022.

The “net worry” for each cohort – the percentage worried “a great deal” minus the percentage worried “not at all” – shows the stark differences. For Republicans it is now 63 per cent, for Democrats it is minus 26. For independents it is 18 per cent, which highlights that the Democratic Party may have to start moving away from the feelings of its supporter base if it wants to try to bring in independent voters.