What does Joe Biden’s approval rating mean for the midterms?

History suggests that the Democrats might be heading for a fall if the president’s popularity is anything to go by, writes Chris Stevenson

The omens are not looking good for Joe Biden (AP)

There was plenty of talk during the summer, including from this writer, about an upswing in the fortunes of the Democrats in the opinion polls, and whether they could continue the momentum as we approach the midterm elections in November.

The same was also true of Joe Biden’s approval rating, which in August jumped to its highest point in a year, hitting 44 per cent, according to Gallup. However, that dipped back to 42 per cent in September, closer to the level at which it had sat for most of 2022. Those two percentage points might not seem like much of a difference, but they would have been something for the White House to latch on to.

Now, compare that latest 42 per cent rating (from a poll ending 16 September) with those of the previous three incumbents of the White House, at the same point in their presidency, during their first (or only) term in office. Donald Trump’s rating was 40 per cent (30 September 2018), while Barack Obama’s was 46 per cent (19 September 2010), and approval for George W Bush stood at 70 per cent (16 September 2002).

Biden is ahead of Trump (though not by much); the Democrats won back the House of Representatives in 2018, though the Republicans held the Senate. He is behind Obama, and the Democrats still lost the House in 2010, though they retained the Senate. So the omens are not good for Biden.

Why does this matter? History – or Gallup analysis of that history, at least – shows us that up until 2018, but not including that year’s midterm results, the average number of House seats lost by the party of a president whose approval rating was below 50 per cent was 37. That contrasts with an average of 14 seats for White House residents with an approval rating higher than 50 per cent. In 2018, the Democrats won a net gain of 40 House seats.

To take the House this November? Republicans need a net gain of five seats. Biden’s popularity, or rather the lack of it, may yet come back to bite the Democrats.