What lies behind Labour’s crackdown on welfare benefits?

Keir Starmer says Britain is being held back by its ballooning benefits bill. Kate Devlin looks at the numbers and why ministers are ramping up the rhetoric

Labour’s blitz on benefits comes with some eye-catching language from the prime minister, announced in The Mail on Sunday. He has warned of Britain’s “bulging benefits bill blighting our society” as he vows to cut the £137bn cost.

But alongside the rhetoric of “sweeping changes” and “no more business as usual”, what’s behind this policy drive?

What are the numbers?

Figures suggest more than 4 million people will be claiming long-term sickness support by the end of the decade. The government’s latest official forecasts show the number of people claiming incapacity benefits is expected to climb from around 2.5 million in 2019 to 4.2 million just 10 years later.

This corresponds to a recent rise in the number of people out of the labour market because of ill health. This was 4.9 per cent of the working-age population in 2019 but by 2023, just four years later, it was 6.4 per cent, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

Keir Starmer has warned of a ‘bulging benefits bill blighting our society’ (PA)

Why has this happened?

Experts agree that while the overall answer is complex, the numbers have been driven in part by Covid. The figures show there has been a massive increase in the number of claimants since the pandemic. And this in itself poses a problem. Because it is not clear how to convince people who perhaps fell out of working at the height of the crisis four years ago but are still out of a job now that their place is in the workplace.

How much will it cost?

Research by the Resolution Foundation think tank last year found the UK’s ageing and sickly population will start adding a further £20bn a year to the welfare bill by 2029.

Part of the boom in spending is fuelled by guarantees such as the triple lock on pensions. But it is also driven growing number of people claiming disability or incapacity benefits.

What is Labour planning?

Full details will be unveiled later this week. But we do know some things ministers are set to announce. Work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall has warned that young people who consistently refuse to take jobs or training opportunities could lose their benefits. This would be part of a so-called “youth guarantee”.

“If people repeatedly refuse to take up the training or work responsibilities, there will be sanctions on their benefits,” she said on Sunday. “The reason why we believe this so strongly is that we believe in our responsibility to provide those opportunities, which is what we will do.”

Other measures expected to be included are work coaches in mental health clinics.

Tackling cheats

Keir Starmer has also pledged a crackdown on benefits cheats. The prime minister promised to “crack down hard on anyone who tries to game the system, to tackle fraud so we can take cash straight from the banks of fraudsters. There will be a zero-tolerance approach to these criminals ... I will grip this problem once and for all”.

Has Labour been criticised?

Starmer has already come under fire from veteran Labour MP Diane Abbott, who accused her party leader of “peddling benefit scrounger mythology” with an article he wrote about plans for a crackdown. In the piece he also promised not to “call people shirkers or go down the road of division”, a nod to previous Tory governments, and said that instead ministers would “treat people with dignity and respect”.

But do not expect that to be the only criticism from the left of his party on the issue. Charities and campaigners will also be scouring the plans when they are released.