PMQs: Theresa May is losing two elections for the price of one

It is increasingly plain to see that the referendum is not the only one of David Cameron’s cans Theresa May cannot carry

It is hard not to acknowledge the growing sense that the balance has shifted (AFP/Getty)

There was a prevailing view, in the run-up to the 2010 election, that it would be the election everyone should want to lose. So brutal would the cuts have to be in the wake of the financial crisis, so unsparing the dismantling of the nation state, that whomsoever found themselves charged with the task of doing it would be cast from power for a generation.

Fully in keeping with all other political punditry of the last decade or so, this turned out to be rubbish. Cameron and Osborne pulverised the disabled and the less fortunate, while talking up a Big Idea about replacing the state with a network of volunteers – which lasted about a week. They talked tough on spending while doubling borrowing. But, by some almost alchemical process, timed everything to perfection to arrive in the buildup to the 2015 election with the economy growing and employment at record levels.

Even without the 2016 referendum, without the 2017 election that sucked the air from Theresa May and blew it straight up Jeremy Corbyn, even if it were still David Cameron standing there, it is tempting to wonder whether now might be the time people would begin to realise they might have been conned.

It was the usual stuff at Prime Minister’s questions.

“I have the latest figures from the Office of Budget Responsibility here Mr Speaker, and they say ‘potato’.”

“I have to tell the Honourable Gentleman that his own front bench says ‘patata’.”

At one point Jeremy Corbyn claimed that there are “4.2 million disabled people living in poverty in the UK”. Theresa May countered that Britain “spending on disability per capita is the second highest in the G7”.

Faced with a choice of facts that just cannot possibly tessellate, the vaguely interested observer can do little more than choose who it is they want to believe.

And with the choice currently on offer, it is hardly surprising more people appear to be choosing Jeremy Corbyn.

In her answer to the Labour leader’s fourth question on the unfortunate fact that ending the public sector pay cap would appear to amount to a real terms pay cut (the 1.7 per cent pay increase for police officers came within hours of the latest figures putting inflation at 2.9 per cent), Theresa May reached for an old Cameron favourite.

“I notice he has not mentioned once the record employment figures, out this morning,” she dared. This worked, once upon a time, returning Ed Miliband and Corbyn 1.0 to their respective boxes.

But it’s 2017 now; the Conservatives have had seven years, and the answer goes off in the casual observer’s head quicker than Jeremy Corbyn can get to his feet to get it out.

“The only problem is that more people in work are in poverty than ever before,” he replied. “More are in insecure work, and more rely on tax credits and housing benefit to make ends meet. Consumer debt is rising by 10 per cent as wages are falling. Household savings are lower than at any time in the past 50 years. That is the Conservative legacy.”

All of this was as true in 2015 as it is now. It’s just a question of who you believe. Tory or Labour? Ed Miliband or David Cameron? Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn?

It is hard not to acknowledge the growing sense that the balance has shifted. Seven years later, Theresa May is finally losing two elections for the price of one. And a referendum as well.