Partygate: 8 of your burning questions answered by expert John Rentoul

‘I would say he has a 50-50 chance of making it to the election’

(Getty Images)

Just over 24 hours after Sue Gray’s long-awaited Partygate report dropped in full, chancellor Rishi Sunak unveiled plans for millions of households to receive a £400 discount on their energy bills.

While the government’s plan to tackle the cost of living crisis might dominate the headlines for a moment and move the focus away from lockdown law-breaking in Downing Street, the fallout from Partygate continues.

The inquiry by the committee of privileges is bound to keep the issue alive, according to John Rentoul, The Independent’s chief political commentator, who held an ‘Ask Me Anything’ on Sue Gray’s report and what happens next on Thursday.

He writes: “The committee has a Conservative majority, but all its members will want to demonstrate their independence and rigour – and they will no doubt make the most of their chance to question Johnson himself.

“Its deliberations are likely to continue into the autumn, so although it may seem that the prime minister “has got away with it” (in the words of his former principal private secretary about the “bring your own booze” event in the Downing Street garden), the scandal still has some distance to run.”

Here are eight questions that came from Independent readers during an ‘Ask Me Anything’ - and the answers from John.

Everyone knows Johnson is guilty of misleading parliament, but at what point can final judgement be officially concluded in order for the head of state to dismiss the rogue PM?

That’s a red flag phrase, “everyone knows”! The PM admits he misled parliament, by saying the rules were followed at all times, but protests that he believed that to be true at the time. A lot of people are of the opinion that he knowingly misled the Commons, but proving that is hard, and Sue Gray’s report didn’t do it. What it does not contain is any evidence that he was warned at the time that an event might be against the rules. There is evidence that some staff were worried that some of the events might look bad (“somewhat of a comms risk” – communications meaning public relations), but those discussions were also fitfully worried about abiding by the rules on social distancing. But I don’t think what seems obvious in hindsight was as obvious to people at the time.

When will Boris Johnson actually go? Surely we don't have to wait for the next general election.

It would be foolish to predict, but it is kind of my job, so I would say he has a 50-50 chance of making it to the election. I don’t think Conservative MPs are ready to get rid of him yet, mainly because it is so unclear who would succeed him. A lot of damage has been done, and there are enough MPs ready to send letters demanding a vote of confidence, but I think it will take another big mistake by the PM to trigger it.

Why did we only get to see nine of the photos submitted to Sue Gray? Will we see the others?

That is a good question. I assume that it is because they do not feature the PM or other members of what Sue Gray calls the “senior management” – if everyone in a photo has to be blurred out, there’s not much point to it. I doubt if there is a more sinister explanation – if photos were suppressed for no good reason, they would be likely to be leaked.

Is the main reason more Tory MP’s not called for Boris’s resignation because there is no obvious candidate for them to get behind to replace him? Is this because the Brexit split with the Tory party is still a very significant factor in who they decide to associate themselves with?

I think that is right. The candidate favoured by the most vocal rebels is Jeremy Hunt, who ran a good campaign against Boris Johnson last time, but he is a Remainer. I think the party members would only accept a Leaver (they are still resentful of not being consulted over Theresa May's election). I don't think Tory MPs could manipulate their votes to present two Remainers to the party members for the final ballot, so whichever candidate voted Leave would be likely to win. At the moment that means Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt or Nadhim Zahawi, which is why you can see Tory MPs hesitating.

Do you think the report helps the parliamentary committee inquiry focus on specific issues or will it distract them?

I think it helps the Conservatives on the committee of privileges, which is looking at the question of whether the PM knowingly misled parliament, to argue that he did not – for the reason I give below. I agree with James Forsyth of The Spectator that the worst the committee is likely to come up with for the PM is a criticism of him for not correcting the record earlier. Boris Johnson can live with that. It'll be something else that gets him, I think.

Who in Downing Street should make sure that civil servants conduct themselves correctly?

That is the implied criticism in the Gray report: that the PM's principal private secretary, his most important civil service assistant in day-to-day interactions in Downing Street, should have blocked some of the events, and should have intervened when they "developed as they did". But the implication is really aimed at the person at the top: the PM himself knew that people were drinking at work and did nothing to set a lead. He gave speeches at a series of leaving events, for which he avoided being fined, presumably because the police accepted that this was part of his duty as a leader. But it should have been obvious that they were parties, and that they would "develop" into gatherings that were not "reasonably necessary for the purposes of work". The cabinet secretary and the PM's principal private secretary should have been responsible for making clear what standards were expected of civil servants and political appointees, but they would have had to be following the PM's lead.

Is the notion that he would not have known what was going on credible given he lived down the corridor?

Not very. He didn't attend the worst events, and indeed was at Chequers for some of them, but he knew enough about "Wine Time Fridays" and the rest to have a quiet word about reining it in.

Is there any evidence that this booze culture in No10 predates covid or Johnson? How long has it been the norm for civil servants to "go on the lash" after work while still on the premises?

"It was a dry old do in my day," is what Anji Hunter said – she was Tony Blair's assistant in his first term. Perhaps it has got worse gradually since then, but I suspect that there was a change of tone under the "Vote Leave" team led by Dominic Cummings, who seems to have confused team spirit with a raucous and rather laddish atmosphere.

These questions and answers were part of an ‘Ask Me Anything’ hosted by John Rentoul at 1pm on Thursday 26 May. Some of the questions and answers have been edited for this article. You can read the full discussion in the comments section of the original article.

Do you have any topics you’d like to see an expert host an ‘Ask Me Anything’ on? Let us know your suggestions in the comments below.