Kate Forbes, Angus Robertson or Humza Yousaf? Betting odds on Nicola Sturgeon’s successor

SNP leader staying on until replacement elected

Nicola Sturgeon has announced that she will be stepping down as Scotland’s first minister and leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) as soon as a successor is chosen.

Ms Sturgeon, the first woman to lead her nation, announced her resignation after eight years in power at a press conference on Wednesday, in which she revealed that attending the funeral of a friend had caused her to make up her mind on the matter.

She said she hoped to spend more time with her family, warned against the increasingly toxic nature of debate at home and abroad and denied that recent political disappointments - notably on securing a second independence referendum - had hastened her decision.

The race is now on to find her successor, with Wimbledon champion and proud Scot Sir Andy Murray the unlikeliest contender to have emerged so far, albeit (presumably) in jest. “Interesting vacancy. Was looking to get into politics when I finish playing,” he tweeted in response to Ms Sturgeon’s surprise announcement.

The three-time BBC Sports Personality of the Year and Unicef UK ambassador may have been joking but he is seldom afraid to speak his mind, having spoken out against sexism in tennis and Russia’s war in Ukraine, among other issues, so might well make a popular parliamentarian one day.

Sir Andy aside, the clear front-runner with bookmakers’ so far is Angus Robertson.

“Angus Robertson is a senior figure in the SNP and he is the early favourite to replace Nicola Sturgeon following her resignation,” said Coral spokesman John Hill. “We have also seen some early support in our betting for Kate Forbes and Humza Yousaf.”

Coral is currently offering odds on Mr Roberson of 6/4, followed by 5/1 on Ms Forbes and 8/1 on Mr Yousaf.

Also in the running are Keith Brown (10/1), John Swinney (12/1), Joanna Cherry (14/1) and Anas Sarwar (16/1).

Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom agreed, commenting: “Angus Robertson is the early evens favourite to replace her.”

Alternatively, the company is offering odds of 5/1 on Ms Forbes, 8/1 on Mr Yousaf, 9/1 on Mr Swinney, 10/1 on Mr Brown, 12/1 on Ms Cherry, 20/1 on Mhairi Black, 25/1 on Shirley-Anne Somerville, 33/1 on Michael Russell and Michael Matheson and 50/1 on Stewart Hosie and Andrew Wilson.

Smarkets, which offers percentage probabilities on political outcomes, also has Mr Robertson out in front, saying he has a 42 per cent likelihood of winning.

“Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation will be a major blow to the SNP, with the first minister achieving the rare feat in the last few years of being a politician with net positive approval ratings among their electorate,” said Smarkets analyst Patrick Flynn.

“It’s hard to argue that some of the support for Scottish independence was not driven by Sturgeon’s personal popularity. Her resignation may be the biggest hit for the independence movement and the SNP since the 2014 referendum.

“The markets seem to agree, with the chance of a Labour majority at the next election trading at its highest ever level today, suggesting traders are of the believe that the SNP will weaken at the next election, with Labour standing to benefit.”

Among the other runners and riders, the company gives Ms Forbes an 18 per cent chance of winning, followed by 10 per cent for Mr Yousaf and Mr Swinney and just 2 per cent for Ms Cherry.