Inquiry report expected to decide if Nicola Sturgeon will be forced to quit to be published within hours

QC James Hamilton to rule whether first minister misled parliament or broke conduct rules in Alex Salmond furore

Nicola Sturgeon has dismissed calls to resign - but the independent probe could change that (PA)

The inquiry report likely to determine whether Nicola Sturgeon will be forced to resign has been handed to the Scottish government and will be published within hours.

James Hamilton – the QC called in by embattled SNP first minister over the Alex Salmond sex allegations controversy – will rule whether she misled parliament or broke the ministerial code.

If Ireland’s former chief prosecutor concludes Ms Sturgeon misled knowingly, she would almost certainly have to quit – just six weeks before crucial Holyrood elections the SNP is expected to win.

Such an extraordinary twist would plunge the campaign for a second Scottish independence referendum into turmoil, after months when the ‘Yes’ campaign has held a poll lead.

Ms Sturgeon placed her future in Mr Hamilton’s hands when she appointed him to investigate her actions, placing far more importance on it than a separate inquiry held by a committee of MSPs.

Read more:

• Scotland’s roadmap out of lockdown explained 
• Mounting pressure on Nicola Sturgeon to resign as Tories threaten vote of no confidence 
• Private Scottish island on sale for £80,000

Their report, leaked last Thursday, will be published on Tuesday morning and is expected to say she did mislead the Scottish Parliament, but not knowingly.

The first minister has dismissed Conservative calls to resign and will almost certainly win a vote of confidence now to be held on Tuesday – unless the Hamilton inquiry verdict is damning and she refuses to quit.

Ms Sturgeon has admitted not giving Holyrood the full picture about when she first heard about the investigation into harassment complaints against her predecessor, in 2017.

She later acknowledged an earlier meeting with Mr Salmond’s former chief of staff, during which the subject was discussed, but argued that was only in general terms – not a detailed account.

The first minister claimed to have forgotten the earlier meeting until being reminded of it later, possibly making it be difficult for any inquiry to prove otherwise.

The Hamilton report was handed to the Scottish government on Monday morning, Ms Sturgeon having pledged to publish it on the same day once data protection rules had been satisfied.

A spokesperson said: “The Scottish Government received the independent adviser’s report this morning and it will be published later today, once legally required checks and notifications are completed.”

Opposition MSPs claims Ms Sturgeon misled them in her account of a key meeting with Mr Salmond, where he alleges she offered to intervene in the investigation in support of a mediated settlement.

She denies that but has acknowledged she may not have been forthright enough in making that clear.

If Ms Sturgeon survives, the fifth session of the Scottish Parliament will end and the parties will take the row into a six-week election campaign.