‘The new Thatcher or the new Truss?’ 10 of your burning Tory leadership questions answered

In this exclusive Q&A session, The Independent’s political commentator Andrew Grice addresses key dynamics in the Tory leadership race, and what we can expect when Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick takes the helm

Kemi Badenoch is in the running to be the next Tory leader (Getty Images)

The Conservative Party leadership race has entered its final stage, with Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick competing to lead both the party and the opposition.

As voting concluded on 31 October, I was on hand to answer questions from Independent readers, highlighting the key differences between the candidates, evaluating likely outcomes, and discussing the future of the Conservative Party.

With the winner set to be announced on 2 November, speculation has intensified about which candidate might best rejuvenate Conservative support ahead of the next general election. Both Badenoch and Jenrick align with the party’s right-wing, yet their distinct leadership styles and policy priorities have sparked a vigorous debate among MPs and members.

Against a backdrop of recent scandals and declining public confidence, the race raises critical questions: Can either candidate effectively bridge party divides and, more importantly, restore public trust?

As members weigh their decision, many wonder if the new leader will bring a fresh vision to the Conservatives or reinforce a divisive image that has hampered the party’s momentum in recent years.

Here are 10 Tory leadership questions from Independent readers – and my answers from the “Ask Me Anything” event.

Q: What do you think of Kemi Badenoch being called the “new Thatcher”?

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A: It’s interesting that the Conservative Party is still obsessed with Margaret Thatcher; perhaps no surprise, as she did win three general elections. Styling yourself as Thatcher Mark Two doesn’t work. Liz Truss won the Tory leadership but it didn’t make her a good PM.

Kemi Badenoch has praised Thatcher for smashing the glass ceiling. They have some things in common such as their plain speaking. But Badenoch has a long way to go before she can inherit the Thatcher mantle. She is still at a relatively early stage of her career.

Q: Where is the centrist candidate in this race? Was it a failed strategy by MPs that led us to this final two?

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A: I think it’s a shame there is not a wider choice for Tory party members, who have two right-wingers on the ballot paper. A strong centrist candidate was available in James Cleverly. He performed well at the Tory conference and I expected him to make the run-off, probably against Robert Jenrick.

But there was some funny business in the final round of voting among Tory MPs. We can’t know for sure as it was a secret ballot, but it seems that some Cleverly supporters thought he was assured of a place in the final two and so voted for either Jenrick or Badenoch in the hope of knocking the other one out. Cleverly’s vote went down and they knocked out their own man! Not so Cleverly.

Robert Jenrick has argued the new leader must spell out some key policies now (PA)

Q: What’s the difference between the two candidates?

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A: It’s true that they are both on the party’s right, though Kemi Badenoch has also won support from some centrist and One Nation Tories. The fundamental difference between the two runners is that Robert Jenrick has argued the new leader must spell out some key policies now, saying party members want “a plan today rather than the promise of one tomorrow.”

In contrast, Badenoch argues that the Tories need to regain the trust of the British people and discuss what the party stands for before making a policy offer for the 2029 general election. She wants to unite the party around a set of Conservative principles, such as a smaller state, personal responsibility, the family and active citizenship.

Q: Where do Badenoch and Jenrick stand on issues like immigration, foreign policy, and the economy?

SimonL

A: Robert Jenrick has put his pledge to take the UK out of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) at the front and centre of his campaign. The former immigration minister argues this is the only way to tackle illegal migration. His line is uncompromising: members of his shadow cabinet and Tory candidates at the next general election would be forced to support this policy.

Kemi Badenoch thinks the UK will have to leave the ECHR but knows the issue divides the Tory party. She is appealing to centrist members by taking a more cautious approach than Jenrick. She points out that leaving the ECHR would not necessarily be a silver bullet, saying that it is entangled with the Good Friday Agreement which brought peace to Northern Ireland.

On the economy, Jenrick has said that shaving £12bn off the welfare budget by imposing tougher conditions on benefit claimants would allow the 20p basic rate of income tax to be cut by 2p, but has stopped short of a specific pledge. Badenoch has been more cautious about making policy commitments at this stage.

Foreign policy has not featured much in the leadership campaign.

Q: Are the Tories really considering Robert Jenrick for leadership, or is he seen as an opportunist?Swordfish

A: Kemi Badenoch is the favourite but the face might be closer than expected. To the frustration of the broadcasters, she had largely avoided media interviews – apart from on GB News, of course – but in the past week has given a flurry of them. This has fuelled speculation in Tory land that the contest could be tight and the turnout low.

So Jenrick’s chances cannot be written off, even though his Tory critics view him as an opportunist who has travelled far since he supported Remain in the 2016 EU referendum. He insists his views haven’t changed but have been formed by his experience in government, notably as immigration minister.

Q: Do candidates realise that focusing on Tory members might alienate general voters?

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A: I suspect the candidates would answer: “We have a leadership election to win first.” But I am disappointed there hasn’t been more of a debate in this contest about how to win back the voters the Tories lost to the Liberal Democrats and Labour. The Tories seem in denial about that and much happier talking about wooing the supporters who went to Reform UK.

The new Tory leader will need to break out of the party’s comfort zone, appeal to the country quickly and speak about issues such as public services as well as playing the old tunes on immigration and tax cuts. First impressions matter: William Hague never really recovered after being pictured wearing a baseball cap with his name on it after becoming Tory leader in 1997.

Q: Will the Tories be back in power anytime soon?

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A: I don’t write off the Tories’ chances at the next general election. True, they have a mountain to climb after the worst result in their history in July. But Keir Starmer faced a similar task when he became Labour leader and many doubted he could win the following election.

Voters are volatile and traditional tribal loyalties have been broken. Labour’s and Starmer’s opinion poll ratings have already plummeted. Although the Tories are the official opposition, it’s not a given they will be the main beneficiary if Labour is unpopular; they will need to earn the public’s respect and trust. The Tories will face stiff competition from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.

Q: Can Badenoch unite a divided Tory party?

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A: Kemi Badenoch is certainly the favourite but the result could be closer than many people expect. I agree that there is no guarantee the winner will lead the Tories into the next general election. If the new leader is not doing well in two years, Tory MPs might force yet another leadership contest, though I suspect the rules might be changed to make it harder to trigger a vote of confidence in the leader. Tory MPs have form, after forcing out Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss when they lost their confidence. So it’s possible we have another leadership election, and even that the Tories judge they made a mistake by not choosing James Cleverly this time.

Badenoch’s abrasive style and ability to start a fight in an empty room would certainly make her leadership interesting to watch for people like me. There’s a risk she would be a divisive figure who did not unite a party quite capable of inventing new factions even when it has only 121 MPs. In recent days, Badenoch has admitted she can be abrasive and hinted at a softer approach. If she directs her natural aggression at Labour and the media, her party might like it, and rally behind her.

Q: Can you give an example of a Conservative or Labour leader of the Opposition who did not take their party into a general election?

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A: The first one who comes to mind is John Smith. He succeeded Neil Kinnock as Labour leader after the 1992 election but tragically died of a heart attack in 1994. Smith was hugely respected and would almost certainly have become PM at the 1997 election as John Major’s Tories were unpopular and the party had been in power for 18 years. There’s still a debate inside Labour today about whether Smith would have won the landslide his successor Tony Blair did or gone on to win more elections after that like Blair.

Also, Iain Duncan Smith became Tory leader of the opposition in 2001, but lost the confidence of his MPs and was deposed in a coup (orchestrated by the Tory whips office) two years later. The party turned to Michael Howard, anointing him as leader in a coronation rather than a leadership contest and he led it at the 2005 election.

Q: Is it over for Jenrick? Could Badenoch soften her stance to unite the party if elected?

Jimmy

A: It’s not over until we get the result at about 11am on Saturday, though Kemi Badenoch is the front-runner. Whatever her intentions, I think she might find it hard in practice to “soften her edges.” She admits her outspoken comments often surprise even her own aides. In media interviews, she speaks her mind and it sometimes lands her in hot water - as did her recent remarks about maternity leave and the national minimum wage.

Badenoch seems to believe (wrongly, I think) that the media is out to get her. If she becomes the party leader, she will need to learn how to use the media. In opposition, you can’t implement any policies, so the media is basically all you have got.

Badenoch might be tempted to woo Tory voters who defected to Reform UK - and the many who didn’t vote in July - but she would probably come to realise her party needs to win an election from the centre ground - which both she and Robert Jenrick prefer to call “the common ground” (copyright Keith Joseph in the Thatcher era) so as not to offend the Tory right.

These questions and answers were part of an ‘Ask Me Anything’ hosted by Andrew Grice at 12pm GMT on Thursday 31 September. Some of the questions and answers have been edited for this article. You can read the full discussion in the comments section of the original article.

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