Military expects the go-ahead for Iraq war within a month

Military strategists believe Saddam Hussein could be toppled by his own army shortly before or in early stages of an attack

Britain's military forces are expected to be given Downing Street's go-ahead by the end of this month to prepare for a war with Iraq.

It will take two months from then, and £90m, to get the army's chief battle tank, Challenger 2, "desertised" for combat, and move other equipment and manpower into place, senior Whitehall sources said.

According to the projected timetable for a new Gulf war, drawn up by defence planners in London and Washington, an air campaign could begin by the end of November, with a land offensive early in the new year.

Although no official decision has been made yet on deployment, and the Government insists that a war is not inevitable, strategists in London are preparing contingency "non plans" for a short and swift war, and units have already been "ringfenced" for operations.

Senior British and American commanders believe that a coup d'etat is almost certain to take place in Baghdad to depose Saddam Hussein on the eve of, or very early into, a new conflict. They also believe that the damage caused by the Iraqis using chemical or biological weapons in an open battlefield may not be as destructive as has been feared.

Senior officers hold that as much of the Iraqi armed forces as possible must be left intact in a post-Saddam Iraq to maintain order and prevent Shia and Kurdish forces from dismembering the country.

The Whitehall sources also acknowledged that senior British officers do not view that a war against the Iraqi regime is a matter of "national survival", or a "do or die" situation.

"Spending £90m to desertise has to be a political decision. [But] If we have not moved on the go-ahead by the end of this month, I would be very surprised,"a senior Whitehall source said. "It will take just a few weeks to move armour when a decision is made, but around two months to carry out the full desertisation.

"There are reasons to believe that there could be a coup d'etat against the current regime by their commanders. It is not in our interest to destroy or humiliate the Iraqi army, they will be needed to maintain the territorial integrity of Iraq.

"As for weapons of mass destruction, the effectiveness of chemical and biological weapons may be limited in a dispersed battlefield, the nuclear issue, of course, is very different."

In Washington, the Bush administration yesterday urged Iraqi generals to defy President Saddam if he orders biological or chemical attacks on US and allied forces. "The message to them is think before you act," the White House spokesman, Ari Fleischer, said.

The Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri yesterday visited the United Arab Emirates as the Iraqi regime continued with its own diplomatic offensive. "With whatever weapons we have in our hands, and after depending on God with faith, we are able to confront any aggressor, from wherever he comes," Mr Sabri said.