Labour claims to have broken the link between migrant crossings and good weather

It comes as more than 450 people made the dangerous crossing over the English Channel in small boats on Christmas Day, according to Home Office figures

Labour claims it has broken the link between favourable weather conditions and an influx of migrant crossings, as the government embarks on its mission to crack down on illegal migration to the UK.

The party’s analysis of small-boat crossings indicates that people-smugglers are showing signs of being put off crossing on “red days” – when low wind and calm waters make it easier to cross the Channel.

It comes despite there having been a higher number of days with calmer conditions in the six months since the party took power than during the same period in both 2023 and 2022.

The average number of arrivals per “red day” was 262.8 from July to 23 December 2024, compared with 360.8 in the final six months of last year, 383.8 in 2022, and 286.2 in 2021.

A group of people thought to be migrants are brought into Dover, Kent, on board a Border Force vessel (PA Wire)

Labour Party insiders claimed that the figures show it has broken the link between better weather and more migrant crossings, adding that the government’s strategy is “designed to ensure that the UK’s border security is no longer at the mercy of either the weather conditions or the smuggling gangs, as it has been since the crossings began in 2018”.

They said: “In 2023, the previous government celebrated a quiet end to the year in terms of arrivals that was entirely because of the record-low number of ‘red days’.

“This year, despite a final quarter with the highest number of ‘red days’ on record, we are seeing signs – in comparison with previous years – that the disruption of the smuggling gangs is beginning to have an impact.”

Labour pointed out that the first six months of this year, when the Conservative Party was still in power, saw a record number of small-boat arrivals despite the number of good weather “red days” being lower than any previous year in which such crossings took place.

This meant that the ratio of arrivals to red days in the first half of the year was also the highest on record. In the second half of 2024, by contrast, the number of “red days” is set to be the highest recorded in recent history – but the ratio of small-boat arrivals to red days is set to be the lowest, the party said.

It comes as more than 450 people made the dangerous crossing over the English Channel in small boats on Christmas Day, according to Home Office figures.

Data updated on Thursday indicated that 451 migrants arrived on 25 December on 11 boats.

The last time vessels carrying migrants are known to have arrived was on 14 December, when 160 people arrived in three boats.

The figures take the total number of crossings in 2024 to 35,491, around 21 per cent higher than last year, but about 22 per cent down on 2022.

The Labour Party has promised to “smash the gangs” and prevent illegal migration by clamping down on the individuals that smuggle refugees across the Channel.

However, the party has been accused of continuing the previous Tory government’s so-called “hostile environment” approach to migration after the Home Office hailed a new crackdown on immigration crime this month.

Home secretary Yvette Cooper has promised to crack down on smuggling gangs (PA Wire)

In December, the government announced that nearly 13,500 migrants had been removed from Britain since the election, as well as pledging to put £8m towards technology for immigration enforcement operations such as raids and arrests.

It comes after Labour previously pledged that it would return more people who do not have a right to stay in the country by the halfway point in its first year in office than in any other six-month period since 2018.

While the government said the figures show it is on track to deliver on its returns pledge, which would need to be met by early January, campaigners have hit out at the approach, comparing it to that of the previous Conservative government.

Julia Tinsley-Kent, head of policy and communications at the Migrants’ Rights Network, told The Independent: “They fail to understand that people are forced into making dangerous crossings because safe routes do not exist.

“Punishing migrants without permission to work or reside fails to address the fundamental failures within the immigration system that continuously pushes migrants into exploitative conditions because they can become undocumented so easily.”

A Home Office spokesperson said: “We all want to end dangerous small-boat crossings, which threaten lives and undermine our border security.

“The people-smuggling gangs do not care if the vulnerable people they exploit live or die, as long as they pay. We will stop at nothing to dismantle their business models and bring them to justice.”