Labour risks losing its links with the unions

Tony Blair attempt to win the hearts and minds of Middle Englanders in his battle with firefighters' leaders will infuriate Labour's union affiliates.

Suburban man and woman might be impressed by warnings of higher mortgage rates if the firefighters win a big pay rise, but employees' leaders will be less than thrilled.

Unions are still the biggest single source of Labour Party funds and the dispute is something of a cause célèbre in the movement. If the Government decides to confront the Fire Brigades Union in a long and bitter conflict, considerable damage could be done to Labour's financial lifeline.

A defeated FBU would almost certainly come under pressure from its membership to withdraw its political and financial affiliation to Labour. It has already decided to be more circumspect on its funding of the party.

A decision to split from Labour by the left-led firefighters' union – much admired elsewhere in the movement – would certainly influence other like-minded affiliates to look again at the amount of money they pour into party coffers.

John Edmonds, leader of the GMB general union, said yesterday: "This is no longer just a dispute between the Fire Brigades Union and the Government – it has descended into a fight between the Government and the whole of the union movement."

Union leaders are keen to retain the link with the party, partly because they like strutting their stuff on the national political stage and partly because from time to time they bring genuine influence to bear on government policies. Despite that, affiliates, under pressure from activists, might look yet again at the level of their contributions.

The FBU's contribution to the party is relatively small compared with the big battalions such as the Communication Workers Union, which has already decided to cut its contributions by £500,000 over three years, and the GMB, which has reduced its donations by £2m over four years.

The RMT rail union could be among the most prominent affiliates to reconsider its contributions. Bob Crow, the hard-left general secretary of the RMT, warned in the summer that the policies of the Government would be under close scrutiny and that it could scrap its links with Labour.

He has presented the Government with another reason to settle the dispute. A number of London Underground lines were closed during the 48-hour firefighters' stoppage which ended on 15 November, because of employees' safety concerns. There has been much less disruption since the eight-day strike began on Friday after management warned that those refusing to work would be sent home without pay. Now Mr Crow is balloting all 7,000 RMT members on the Underground on industrial action because management has refused to give an assurance that employees will not be disciplined for walking out over safety concerns.

And if the Government fulfils its threat to use civilian strike-breakers to cross picket lines so that they can use the modern fire engines, Labour will not be endeared to the organisations that provide much of its funds.

¿ Seventy per cent of Britons believe the number of strikes will increase over the next year, and 85 per cent are worried that they can no longer rely on public services. The YouGov poll for The Daily Telegraph found 53 per cent agree that "nothing in Britain works".