Labour lost almost a third of its Black and Asian support at election, polling finds

Exclusive: Ipsos data shows both Labour and Tory parties lost a significant number of Black and Asian voters, who turned to Greens and Independents in unprecedented numbers

The Labour Party lost almost a third of its vote share from Black and Asian communities since the last general election, according to exclusive polling for The Independent from Ipsos.

Among ethnic minority voters, Sir Keir Starmer’s party led the Conservatives with 46 per cent of ballots to 17 per cent, and among white voters, Labour clinched 33 per cent compared to 26 per cent for the Tories.

However, Labour’s support among ethnic minority voters has fallen by 18 percentage points to 46 per cent, compared to the last general election under Jeremy Corbyn at 64 per cent — meaning that Labour shed nearly a third of its 2019 voters among the cohort.

Jabeer Butt, chief executive of the Race Equality Foundation, said: “Some have marvelled at the efficiency of Labour, securing a huge majority based on a lower share of the vote in comparison to 2019.

“Nevertheless, it should concern Labour that they have not only lost votes from Asian communities, but they have lost seats. How Labour addresses the concerns of these communities, such as a disproportionate experience of poverty, excess deaths during the pandemic and now Palestine, is likely to be crucial in whether this is a blip or becomes a trend.”

The “mega-poll” by Ipsos of 15,234 adults, carried out just after the general election, found significant variation in Labour support among different ethnic minority groups with younger people from these groups less likely to rally behind Sir Keir.

Grassroots Black Left, a socialist organisation backed by former frontbencher Clive Lewis, said the polling reflects Labour’s recent race rows, its fragmented relationship with Black and Asian communities and disappointment around its position on Gaza.

“It’s not surprising that disenchanted former loyal Labour supporters, especially younger ones, are increasingly voting for the Green Party and radical independent candidates,” a GBL spokesperson said.

In an interview last year, Sir Keir made comments which suggested he thought Israel has a right to limit water and electricity in Gaza. He later said that Israel has a right to self-defence but not to withhold aid. This earlier statement put off voters, the GBL spokesperson said.

Labour lost 22 per cent of support among young people in the July election – more than any party in that age group (PA)

“He also needs to end the supply of British arms to Israel,” they added.

“Starmer and his ministers must show they are prepared to listen to the Black communities about our concerns and act on our demands. They could do this by holding US-style town hall meetings in Black communities around the country.”

The Independent’s analysis showed that Labour’s vote share was much higher among voters from a Black ethnic minority background than among voters from an Asian ethnic minority background, at 68 per cent to 39 per cent.

Among those of a mixed ethnic background, the party’s vote share stood at 50 per cent.

Sir Keir received the keys to Downing Street in July after defeating Rishi Sunak after 14 years of Conservative-led power.

Yet talk of a 1997-level landslide, when Tony Blair first came into power, was unfounded. Not only did Labour win less of the popular vote overall this time, with 45 per cent in 1997 and 34 per cent in 2024, but ethnic minority groups in particular appeared much less convinced by Sir Keir than Mr Blair’s Labour.

Although Labour lost 22 per cent of support among young people – more than any party in that age group – the analysis shows that the party’s vote share increased in every category over the age of 34.

Gideon Skinner, head of politics at Ipsos, said the polling results were evidence of the fragmentation of British politics, “where old certainties can now no longer be relied upon”.

“We had already seen ethnic minority satisfaction with Keir Starmer start to fall in the second half of 2023, then playing a role in the local elections, and this looks like continuing that trend, with the Greens and independent/smaller parties benefiting instead,” he said.

“The conflict in Gaza can’t be ignored as a factor, as it was much more likely to be cited as an important issue, especially by Asian voters.

“At the same time, we shouldn’t think of ethnic minority voters as a single group or only concerned about a single issue – public services like the NHS and education, the cost of living, the economy and jobs, tax, housing and crime were all just as or often even more important issues in their decision.

“Ethnic minority Britons have shown the power of their vote in 2024, and we will also need a better understanding of the data behind their views to respond to their concerns.”

Carla Denyer, co-leader of the Green Party, said issues around immigration and Gaza meant that people felt Labour’s anti-racism credentials had been tarnished.

She said: “For voters with those concerns, our work towards being a more inclusive party, along with our offer of real hope and real change, be that on housing, fixing our public services, the climate crisis or the war on Gaza, made us an inspiring alternative. This is one reason why we achieved our record vote share and secured four new MPs.”

The Labour Party was approached for comment.