Labour may topple to third place

Tony Blair will be back on the campaign trail tomorrow trying to whip up interest in this week's local elections, in which Labour fears it could toppleto third place.

Low turn-out, high council tax bills and a "Baghdad backlash" among party activists are likely to put hundreds of Labour's council seats at risk. Campaigners are hoping that a prime ministerial visit to the north of England will help translate Mr Blair's popularity into votes for Labour councillors.

A year ago, the Conservatives managed to slip just ahead of Labour in the local elections, picking up 35 per cent of the vote to Labour's 34 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats seven points behind. This time the Liberal Democrats are expected to creep up to about 30 per cent of the vote, putting all three main parties so close together that Labour could slip to third place. The results will be skewed against Labour because there are no elections in London.

Party officials will have answer on Friday to anyone suggesting that defeat in local elections means the Government is under threat. They will point out that in local elections three years ago the Tories, under William Hague, collected an impressive 39 per cent of the vote, easily overtaking the other two main parties – only to be soundly beaten in the general election the following year.

In England, 10,427 of the 19,721 council seats, on 308 of the 387 councils, are up for election. Most of the contests are in the non-metropolitan district councils, but much of the attention at the end of the week will be on the big urban authorities. The Liberal Democrats are poised to take overall control of Sheffield, where they hold 42 of 87 seats.

A big swing against Labour could also cost the party control of Birmingham, the country's largest local authority, which has been in Labour's control for 18 years.

The Conservatives say they hope to gain at least 30 seats, and have accused Labour of exaggerating its own potential losses to make the results look good on the night. The other two parties retort that the Tories have been downplaying expectations, and are likely to gain several hundred seats.

The Conservatives are fielding more candidates in the large urban areas in the North, where they were wiped out in the 1990s. There are no Tory councillors in Manchester, Liverpool, Knowsley, Derwentside, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Gateshead, South Tyneside, Easington, Wansbeck, Wear Valley, Durham City, Sedgefield, Ashfield and Chesterfield.

To try to overcome low voter turnout, voters in 18 local council areas will be able to use text messages, the internet, electronic kiosks and digital television to make their choice.

There are also elections in Scotland and Wales, where the main point of interest is whether the nationalist parties can now make gains in the new assemblies.