Labour members await High Court appeal decision that could decide leadership election

'I wouldn’t be surprised if it didn’t go our way. It’s a coin toss,' said an ally of Mr Corbyn

Jeremy Corbyn debates with Owen Smith in front of an audience of party members at the second Labour leadership debate (Getty)

Labour officials will later learn whether their appeal against a High Court judgement, overturning a ban on the right of new members to vote, has been successful.

UPDATE: New Labour members will not be able to vote in leadership election

Three Appeal Court judges will decide whether the High Court was right to rule that the recent recruits should be given a vote. Labour’s governing body, the national executive committee (NEC), are appealing against the judgement that they were wrong to block 130,000 new members from voting in the leadership contest by introducing 12 January as a “freeze date” for supporters.

On Thursday the party’s barrister argued that the NEC, not the courts, was the “ultimate arbiter” of Labour’s rule book.

Speaking to The Independent, an ally of Mr Corbyn was unsure what the outcome of the appeal would be. But, they said: “I wouldn’t be surprised if it didn’t go our way. It’s a coin toss.” Meanwhile, a source on the party’s side, said: “You can’t possibly know - no one has got the faintest idea”.

Rev Edward Leir, one of the five members who won the legal challenge on Monday, said Labour's decision to appeal was "madness". He told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme: "This wasn't a spurious action, it's not been politically motivated. It's been about people holding on to their promises."

Mr Leir, who revealed he had campaigned for David Cameron in the 2010 election but had been won over by Mr Corbyn, added: "My heart leads towards Corbyn. In my youth for two decades I was a supporter of the Conservative Party," he said.

"I actually canvassed for them the election before last. Found myself deeply disappointed with the direction they were going in and surprisingly found myself really agreeing with the way Jeremy Corbyn was trying to bring change to politics.”

So what are the potential outcomes of the case?

Labour loses the appeal and takes appeal to the Supreme Court

If the party's barrister has failed to convince the three Appeal Court judges and they decide the NEC are not the “ultimate arbiter” of Labour’s rule book then the party could continue with its legal action. The Supreme Court is the final court of appeal in the United Kingdom. It is likely, however, that the party would have to be granted permission by the Court of Appeal to pursue this avenue. It would be seen as a controversial decision too, as members would again see this as party officials spending their membership fees to block them from voting.

Sources on the party's side, however, told The Independent that it would be “unlikely” for the party to take this route.

Labour loses the appeal and throws in the towel

If the party decides not to take any further legal action then approximately 130,000 supporters will be added to the people eligible to vote in the Labour leadership contest. The decision by the NEC, the party's governing body, will be overturned and a ban on these new members voting will no longer be justified. Many in the party believe that these new supporters have flocked to Labour's ranks to bolster Mr Corbyn and hand him victory in the contest.

Shadow chancellor John McDonnell has, however, rejected the idea that allies of Mr Corbyn support the ruling only because it could benefit the incumbent. He said when people joined they were told "very clearly" that they would be able to vote in the leadership contest and "to deny them that democratic right flies against all the traditions of our party".

Mr McDonnell insisted his support for the ruling was not because it could improve Mr Corbyn's chances of victory.

Labour wins the appeal and the members challenge the decision

If the appeal judges decide that is for the National Executive Committee to be the "ultimate arbiter" of the party's rule book and overturn the High Court judgement then the members could also pursue further legal action. However, they would have to again crowdfund their barristers' costs, which could prove a difficult task.

The crowdfunding page, at the time of writing, had raised £35,474. Organisers claim: "Last week, the Labour Party's National Executive Committee decided to retroactively disenfranchise all Labour members by changing the rules to exclude any members who joined since 12 January 2016 from voting in the forthcoming leadership election.

"When we joined the Party, the website said, 'As a member, you’ll be a key part of the team. You’ll be eligible to vote in leadership elections.'

"Not only can we not vote in this election according to the current procedures but we do not feel like a valued part of the Labour team."

Labour wins the appeal and the members do no get a vote

If party officials, however, emerge successful and the five members who brought the original case are unable to gather the funds, then members who joined after January 12 will likely be excluded from voting in the leadership contest.

Appearing outside the High Court on Monday Christine Evangelou, a 41-year-old fitness instructor from Enfield, said she was “disgusted that they are trying to take away my vote” and added she had only recently joined the Labour party because she wishes to support Mr Corbyn and his “Labour values”.