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Labour leadership: Pollsters predicted Corbyn's win exactly right

YouGov said Mr Corbyn would win with 62 per cent of the vote in August

Harriet Agerholm
Saturday 24 September 2016 14:43 BST
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In August YouGov predicted Mr Corbyn would triumph with 68 per cent of the vote
In August YouGov predicted Mr Corbyn would triumph with 68 per cent of the vote (YouGov)

Experts at YouGov predicted the result of the Labour leadership election correctly, bucking a trend of inaccurate forecasts.

Jeremy Corbyn vowed to unite the party and "wipe the slate clean" after winning the leadership race with 61.8 per cent of the vote, increasing his majority.

At the end of August, YouGov predicted Mr Corbyn would triumph with 62 per cent of votes – getting the result exactly right to the nearest whole number.

As part of YouGov's calculation, the polling company surveyed 1,236 Labour voters. In this sample, different Labour voters - members, supporters and union affiliates - were represented in the same proportions as the turnout of the 2015 leadership election.

Trust in YouGov's predictions, along with that of other major polling companies, dipped following the general election in 2015, when they predicted the wrong result.

A report following the error said the polling company had not down enough to contact Conservative voters – resulting in them falsely showing that the Labour and Tory party were neck and neck.

The streak of inaccurate predictions continued with the referendum on the European Union. After polls closed, YouGov showed a four-point lead for Remain.

YouGov's August poll on the Labour leadership election found that more than half of Labour supporters thought Mr Corbyn had been doing a good job.

Among Mr Corbyn's supporters there is genuine optimism he could lead Labour to victory, the survey found. More than half of those who said they would vote for him claimed he could win the next general election.

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