James Cleverly favourite to top MPs’ poll as Tory leadership contest takes surprise twist

Exclusive: Opponents of the former home secretary have briefed that they believe he has taken the lead among Tory MPs as polling shows he wins the popularity vote with the public

James Cleverly is favourite to top the poll among MPs in the second round of voting for the Tory leadership contest, it is being claimed.

Conservative MPs will vote today to decide which four of their colleagues will go to the party conference in Birmingham at the end of September for a so-called “beauty contest” with members.

While former home office minister Robert Jenrick had topped the first round with 28 votes ahead of rivals Kemi Badenoch on 22 and Mr Cleverly on 21, it is expected that he will struggle to keep the lead.

After Dame Priti Patel was eliminated in the first round, most of her 14 votes are being projected to go to Mr Cleverly who is her neighbouring MP in Essex. MPs Alec Shelbrooke and Greg Smith have both publicly declared for Mr Cleverly.

James Cleverly could top the second round of voting (PA) (PA Wire)

A senior source on a rival campaign said that round 2 “will be Cleverly’s day. He’s doing well among Priti Patel supporters.”

However, the chances of Mr Cleverly coming top could be an exercise in expectation management by rival camps who are trying to mitigate against disappointments.

Meanwhile, sources on Tom Tugendhat’s campaign, the main rival to Mr Cleverly on the left of the party, are “quietly confident” they have secured enough votes to hold off a challenge from former work and pensions secretary Mel Stride.

Mr Stride has been the surprise package of the contest with most people expecting him to go out in the first round. However, he beat Ms Patel leading to claims that the Jenrick campaign had lent him votes to eliminate Dame Priti who was seen as the main rival on the right of the party.

Mr Stride’s 16 votes were just one behind Mr Tugendhat’s 17 making the former security minister vulnerable to another tactical voting ploy.

Robert Jenrick speaking at a Conservative Party leadership campaign event (PA) (PA Wire)

Mr Jenrick has also had to face accusations he did a deal with Boris Johnson’s wife Carrie and agreed to temper his opposition to trans rights in exchange for her support. A source on his campaign described the allegation as: “Looney tunes stuff.”

The accusation seems aimed at helping Ms Badenoch whose camp were surprised she came second in the first round to Mr Jenrick and has been replaced by him as the favourite to win the contest.

But Mr Cleverly’s supporters have pointed to new polling from Savanta which reveals he would win among the public compared to his four rivals.

Of 2,239 people surveyed, in a series of head to heads, Mr Cleverly scored ahead of other candidates against Starmer with the British public, as well as with 2019 Conservative voters and 2016 Brexit voters. Respondents were asked for their view on who would make the best prime minister.

He also outscored rivals amongst 2024 Labour voters, 2024 Lib Dem voters and 2024 Reform voters, with 9 per cent of Labour voters at the election this year and 43 per cent of 2024 Reform voters preferring him to Starmer

This follows polling by Techne in August, which also puts Cleverly ahead of all rival candidates and shows that he has the highest likeability rating amongst voters across Great Britain.

In the Techne polling, Cleverly beat Jenrick 20 per cent to 12 percent; Badenoch 22 per cent to 12 per cent; Tugendhat 19 per cent to 14 per cent and Stride 22 per cent to 9 per cent.

Among Tory members Cleverly beat Jenrick 49 per cent to 28 per cent; Badenoch 51 per cent to 28 per cent; Tugendhat 54 per cent to 23 per cent; and Stride 59 per cent to 15 per cent.

A campaign spokesperson said: “This shows that James is the most popular choice amongst voters, as well as the party members. He is best-placed to unite the Conservative Party, take on Keir Starmer and win back the voters that we lost in 2024.”