Brexit: Everything you need to know about indicative votes

MPs are now setting the agenda in the Commons

After months of failed attempts, parliament finally wrested some control of the Brexit process away from Theresa May on Monday.

It appears to be an unprecedented move, with parliament, not the executive, setting the agenda for what will be debated and voted on during Wednesday’s session.

Under the process, parliament could eventually seize further days and even write its own laws to be voted on – again, previously the prerogative of the prime minister and her administration.

If that happens we will be in the extraordinary position where a prime minister could by forced parliament to carry out its will.

Why is this process happening?

Theresa May has tried to get her deal through the House of Commons twice and failed.

With no apparent prospect of that happening soon, and with MPs fearing a no-deal Brexit, members from several different parties joined forces to try and steer the Brexit process towards an outcome for which there is a Commons majority.

They achieved this on Monday when a plan put forward by Tory former minister Sir Oliver Letwin, known as something of a policy genius, and backed by Labour members such as Hilary Benn, was approved by the house.

It means that on Wednesday, MPs will hold what have come to be known as “indicative votes”. Broadly speaking, this means they will get to express their preference on a range of different Brexit outcomes, in a bid to show what might enjoy majority support.

What is the schedule for the day?

Letwin and colleagues will set out the process for the votes in a business motion, a document submitted to clerks in the Commons on Tuesday evening.

It will dictate how and at what time votes on the various Brexit options take place. At the same time, other MPs or groups of MPs can submit Brexit options they want to be voted on.

On Wednesday afternoon between 2pm and 3pm, after prime minister’s questions, the business motion must be approved by a majority of MPs in the house.

Speaker John Bercow will then select which Brexit options submitted by MPs go forward to the vote. He may select as many as he likes, but is likely to do so based on how much support they have and how many MPs of different parties back them, as well as ensuring there is not too much duplication.

The debate ahead of the votes will begin at 5pm, with voting starting 7pm and the results expected at 9pm.

How will the voting process work ?

MPs will pick up a ballot paper with all of the options selected by speaker listed on the page. They will be able to say “Aye” or “Noe” (yes or no) to each option.

It is likely they will have to sign their ballot so that the process is open and they will then submit it for counting.

The process is being done in this way, rather than in a series of individual votes on each option, because sometimes the ordering of voting can affect how people act – for example, they may not back option one early on, because if it passes they may not get to back option two later in the day.

In the Letwin process every option is voted on at the same time, and so is judged on in its own merits.

The results will, however, be presented as if a series of individual votes have taken place. For example they will say, “No deal: ayes 311, noes 308, customs union: ayes 306, noes 313”, and so on.

Which options are MPs voting on?

A number of proposals have been put forward for MPs' consideration. They include:

Labour's Brexit plan - this would see the UK stay in a customs union with the EU, align itself with the single market and participate in EU agencies.

Common Market 2.0 - proposed by a cross-party group, the plan would lead to a softer Brexit in which the UK continues to participate in the single market and a "comprehensive customs arrangement" with the EU.

Fresh Brexit referendum - the so-called Kyle-Wilson amendment, named after Labour MPs Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson, who have drawn it up, this would require a public vote on any Brexit deal passed by parliament.

"Malthouse Compromise Plan A" - proposed by Conservative Eurosceptics, with the support of some Remainers, it would see Theresa May's deal implemented but with the controversial "backstop" for the Irish border replaced by "alternative arrangements".

Revoke Article 50 - this proposal would see MPs given a vote on a no-deal Brexit if no agreement is passed. If MPs reject no deal, the government would have to stop Brexit by revoking Article 50. Tabled by the SNP, with the backing of MPs from other parties.

No deal - backed by a number of Conservative MPs, who are proposing that the UK leave the EU without a deal on 12 April.

Respect the referendum result - a cross-party proposal, backed by 94 MPs, says the Commons must "reaffirm its commitment to honour the result of the referendum that the UK should leave the European Union".

What is likely to come out of it

It is possible that at the end of the night there may be several options that have gained a majority, some which may conflict with each other. It may also be possible that none get a majority.

The purpose is to see how much support there is for each, with a view to a compromise option between some of the more popular ones being reached when the house seizes more time next week.

Chances are that some form of soft Brexit will reach a majority. If it were eventually implemented, it is possible that could mean the UK staying in the single market and customs union – meaning free movement continues and the UK is unable to have an independent trade policy.

Eurosceptics fear it may eventually be used as a mechanism for delaying and ultimately stopping Brexit altogether.

Does this mean Theresa May‘s deal is dead?

No. This process is running in parallel to the prime minister’s efforts to get her deal through the Commons.

Given it is likely to reach a consensus on some kind of soft Brexit, it is possible that as the process continues, it scares Brexiteers who previously refused to back May’s deal into finally doing so.

She will try and bring her deal back for a third vote this week or next.

What are the longer-term ramifications of what is happening?

May has already said that a customs union or the failure to end free movement are not things she can abide by.

She has also said she cannot simply be forced to carry out parliament’s will without knowing what the EU would demand in return for new Brexit terms.

So in the short term, if May’s deal fails and parliament decides to pass a law forcing the prime minister to pursue a course she cannot countenance, she may well call an election.

Even if she does not at that point, and calling an election would need Labour’s support, such an obscure governing situation cannot possibly continue for long.

MPs would have gained the power to pass laws and force the government’s hand, and is unlikely to give it up.

That means you have two wings of government – the prime minister’s administration and the legislature – both trying to act as if they wield executive power. You can’t have two kings in one country. Such a situation will quickly become ungovernable.

In the longer term, now that this trick has been tried successfully you can expect it to be tried again and again whenever there is a minority government in the Commons, making it harder than ever before to control the country without a commanding majority.

With majorities in short supply for most of the past decade, we are likely to see a new drive for constitutional reform.