History of dark horse victors an omen for Portillo
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Your support makes all the difference.From the moment that William Hague announced his resignation as Tory leader, Michael Portillo has been the bookies' choice to succeed him.
But that could prove ominous, because the Conservatives have a long history of putting their faith in dark horse candidates.
Although he had lost three general elections as Prime Minister, Edward Heath was the early favourite after he stood down in 1975. The only shadow cabinet colleague to challenge him was widely written off – not least because she was a woman.
However, Margaret Thatcher – until then best known for ending free school milk for children during her spell as Secretary of State for Education – emerged from the shadows to top the first round of voting.
Mr Heath pulled out of the contest and his assassin went on to win the second round of voting convincingly – and usher in a new political era.
When she was forced out of office in 1990 after Michael Heseltine's fatal challenge to her leadership, his procession to Downing Street for a moment seemed assured.
Within days, a "stop Heseltine" bandwagon was under way, with the highly respected Foreign Secretary, Douglas Hurd, making his own dignified challenge for the job. From the rear of the field emerged the low-profile John Major, who had been Chancellor of the Exchequer for little more than a year and whose key selling-point was that he was not one of the other candidates.
Mr Major was, in many people's eyes, the outsider when his frustration with Tory in-fighting boiled over and he called a leadership election in 1995. The widely touted scenario was for John Redwood to deliver a fatal blow, opening the door to other candidates. In the end the loyalists' appeal to stop Redwood played uppermost in Tory MPs' minds and Mr Major clung on.
When he bowed out after the 1997 election rout, William Hague appeared at first an also-ran in a crowded line-up. To the horror of the mainly Eurosceptic parliamentary party, Kenneth Clarke made the initial running, topping the first and second rounds of voting. Mr Hague came through the middle to capture the crown, again mainly on the basis that he was not one of his rivals.
This time, all the smart money has so far been wagered on Michael Portillo. But with the evident hostility to the shadow Chancellor among colleagues as they face the prospect of a Portillo regime, Iain Duncan Smith and even Kenneth Clarke may feel history is on their side.
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