General Election 2015: How the Ukip ‘people’s army’ refused to melt in heat of the battle

Predictions that its backing would melt in the heat of an election campaign appeared unfounded as Ukip stuck at around 13 per cent in the opinion polls

Ukip’s heady predictions that dozens of parliamentary seats would fall to the “people’s army” were abandoned once the campaign got underway and it concentrated on the more realistic ambition of maintaining its Commons foothold. Seats which had potentially seemed within its grasp dropped off its radar as it channelled its efforts into a handful of key targets headed by Nigel Farage’s attempt to capture South Thanet.

However, predictions by the major Westminster parties and many commentators that its backing would melt in the heat of an election campaign appeared unfounded as Ukip stuck at around 13 per cent in the opinion polls. That meant few of its candidates were likely to be elected, but the anti-EU party could influence the results in marginal seats across England and Wales.

Predictably the Ukip push for votes was less stage-managed than its rivals, with Mr Farage prepared to mingle with shoppers and drinkers on the campaign trail. It was also bedevilled with unwelcome noises off following disclosures about some supporters’ extremist backgrounds and a succession of unwise comments by candidates . Suzanne Evans, Ukip’s deputy chairman, conceded vetting of candidates needed to be toughened.

The party tried hard to boost its credibility by producing a slick manifesto, in contrast to its 2010 policy platform which Mr Farage ridiculed as “drivel”, and had its spending commitments independently audited. But its launch at an Essex hotel was overshadowed by activists confronting a journalist who queried the shortage of black faces in the document.

His two appearances in television debates were most notable for his tirade against the NHS for treating HIV-positive foreigners – comments designed to appeal to core supporters – and an attack on a “left-wing” BBC audience.

Mr Farage faced impossible demands on his time as he attempted to rally supporters in target seats and shore up votes in his own constituency. He raised the stakes in South Thanet by pledging to resign as leader if he lost – a promise that only encouraged Ukip’s rivals. The only place that seemed certain to return a Ukip MP was Clacton, captured with a massive majority by the Tory defector Douglas Carswell in a by-election last year.

Apart from South Thanet, the Essex constituency of Thurrock appeared to offer the best chance of a Ukip victory, followed by nearby Castle Point and the Rochester and Strood constituency won by another Tory defector, Mark Reckless. In the north of England, it was hoping to secure a series of second places in Labour-held constituencies to position itself as the natural challenger to Labour in 2020.