Stay up to date with notifications from The Independent

Notifications can be managed in browser preferences.

Four reasons the Tories shouldn't feel too smug – despite an incredible election result

David Cameron is now at the mercy of his own MPs

Oliver Wright
Friday 08 May 2015 15:20 BST
Comments
Prime Minister David Cameron and his wife Samantha arrive to N10 Downing street in London
Prime Minister David Cameron and his wife Samantha arrive to N10 Downing street in London (EPA/ANDY RAIN)

Your support helps us to tell the story

From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.

At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.

The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.

Your support makes all the difference.

While the Conservatives are celebrating a remarkable election result this morning, the truth is that strangely today is likely to be the high watermark of David Cameron’s next term as Prime Minister. He may have won – possibly with an overall majority but he is now at the mercy of his fractious and rebellious MPs.

In the last five years they didn’t matter because the Coalition with the Lib Dems gave him a stable and workable majority in the House of Commons – but no longer. He will now have to go it alone. So what does that mean?

Knife-edge votes beckon for Tories

Cameron's won – but could lose the Union

The triumph of the SNP in Scotland and the Conservative win overall in the election brings the prospect of a second referendum that much closer. It is likely that Sturgeon will argue that the new state of affair means Scots should be entitled to new plebiscite soon rather than later – possibly making that it a pledge in the campaign for the Scottish Parliament elections next year. It is ironic that the Tory campaign in England was won by highlighting the threat of the SNP. But as a result the Conservative and Unionist Party may have just set in motion the eventual break-up of that union.

Two years of paralysis over Europe

As a result of this election result we will now, almost certainly, have an in/out EU referendum to look forward to in 2017. This has huge consequences. Firstly it means that a huge amount of Cameron’s time between now and then will be spent trying to cobble a deal together in Brussels that he can put to the British public in the referendum. Whether other European leaders will give him what he needs is far from certain. And it will almost certainly not be enough for his own Eurosceptic backbenchers. The Tories are still horribly divided on Europe and this result will do nothing to unite them. It’s going to make John Major’s troubles over the Maastricht Treaty look like a walk in the park.

PM at the mercy of backbenchers

A whip in the last Government said that there were around 20 Tory MPs who were basically unmanageable and that has not changed as a result of last night’s result. These include Philip Davies who has objected to everything from gay marriage to banning smoking in cars with children, and sending books to prisoners. There is also a sizable number of his MPs who won’t want a third runway at heathrow and will object to anything the Government want to do on schools, education and even welfare.

Join our commenting forum

Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies

Comments

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in