General Election 2015: Labour's Scottish leader predicts Cameron will 'remain as PM' as new poll predicts SNP will win all seats north of the border
Jim Murphy makes extraordinary claim that deals blow to Ed Miliband's electoral hopes
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Your support makes all the difference.David Cameron is likely to “remain Prime Minister” because the predicted wipe-out of Labour in Scotland has reduced Ed Miliband’s chance of forming a government, the party's leader there has admitted.
A week from polling day, the extraordinary forecast by Jim Murphy suggests his party north of the border may have thrown in the towel in their efforts to halt the nationalist surge.
Mr Murphy made the uncharacteristically despondent forecast in an interview with STV after a new Ipsos-Mori poll for the broadcaster predicted Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP would win all of Scotland’s 59 seats.
The poll gave the SNP 54 per cent, increasing their lead over Labour to 34 points. Labour were down four to 20 per cent, just three above the Conservatives who recorded a five point jump.
The Liberal Democrats were up one to five, the Greens on two percent and Ukip on one.
Responding to the poll, Mr Murphy repeated the proxy argument that the Conservatives leader had focused on the SNP because his party in Scotland held no influence.
Describing the poll as “good” for the SNP but “fantastic” for Mr Cameron, he added: “David Cameron can’t beat the Labour Party here in Scotland, so someone else has to do it for him.”
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Mr Murphy then said: “The likelihood is David Cameron will remain Prime Minister, not because Scotland went out and voted for the Tory party but because Scotland voted against Labour for the SNP and reduced the chances of Labour forming the government.”
Although Mr Murphy added that a week was a “long time in politics” and he remained “determined to turn much of this round”, the timing of his prediction that Mr Cameron is likely to win a second term in Downing Street indicates the turn-around that he promised would happen when he became leader in December last year has failed to materialise.
Rather than lead his party out of trouble, the election campaign in Scotland – which has centred on warnings that a vote for the SNP would keep Mr Cameron in power - has been a reverse of the campaign in England and Wales where Mr Miliband’s reputation and standing has improved.
Reacting to Mr Murphy’s despondent prediction for 7 May, a Scottish Conservative spokesman said: “From this extraordinary admission, it seems Labour have finally faced up to the reality that they are in meltdown in Scotland.
“That’s not David Cameron’s fault, Labour’s demise is completely of their own doing.
“The chances of Ed Miliband getting to Downing Street are diminishing by the day, and Jim Murphy clearly agrees.”
Adding to Labour’s woes is the Ipsos-Mori’s finding that 80 per cent are likely to vote on 7 May.
Although down on the record turn-out of 85 per cent in last September’s referendum, the figure is almost 16 higher than the turnout at the 2010 general election.
Labour have always believed that a low turnout, given the surge in SNP membership since the referendum, would help them in marginal seats.
Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader, said the polls made “wonderful reading” but said her party “will continue to take nothing for granted and campaign hard for every vote.”
The Independent has got together with May2015.com to produce a poll of polls that produces the most up-to-date data in as close to real time as is possible.
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All data, polls and graphics are courtesy of May2015.com. Click through for daily analysis, in-depth features and all the data you need. (All historical data used is provided by UK Polling Report)
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