Stay up to date with notifications from The Independent

Notifications can be managed in browser preferences.

Election results: Tories may still be on track for huge landslide despite 'hung parliament' exit poll

The party could win a 100-seat landslide

Andrew Griffin
Thursday 08 June 2017 23:32 BST
Comments
Exit poll predicts hung parliament

Your support helps us to tell the story

From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.

At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.

The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.

Your support makes all the difference.

The Tories could still be on track for a 100-seat landslide despite the shock exit poll.

Initial results appear to be less good for Labour than expected, with the party winning fewer seats from the Conservatives than the exit poll had predicted.

The exit poll – which is very rarely wrong – suggested that the Conservatives would be the biggest party but that they would fail to score a working majority in the House of Commons. That would result in a hung parliament, with any government having to rule as a minority or in a coalition.

But pollster Peter Kellner, the head of YouGov, said that initial results from the two seats that have declared – Sunderland and Newcastle – were far less good for Labour than had been expected.

If the exit poll was that wrong across the country and in the same way, then the Tories would be on track for a 100-seat landlord, he suggested.

In Sunderland, for instance, the exit poll had suggested that there would be a 7 per cent swing towards Labour. But that ended up to be only a 2 per cent swing – throwing the entire exit poll into doubt.

If the Tories did manage to gain such a huge landslide, it would be far more in line with polls ahead of the election.

The results may be wrong because the exit poll doesn't collect information for people who voted by postal vote, Mr Kellner said. Those people are expected to vote disproportionately for the Tories – potentially explaining why the poll's data appeared to suggest better results for Labour than in the general election.

Join our commenting forum

Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies

Comments

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in