European elections poll: Theresa May's Conservatives 'on course for worst defeat in history'

Just nine per cent of those who voted Leave at EU referendum say they will vote Tory tomorrow

Theresa May's Conservatives are on course for their worst electoral defeat in a national vote as a fresh poll for The Independent puts the party in fourth position on the eve of the European elections.

The survey - cementing the Brexit Party in first place - also shows Labour and the Liberal Democrats vying for second place, with Jeremy Corbyn's party slightly ahead as the UK public prepares to elect its next crop of MEPs on Thursday.

The poll by BMG researchers puts the Brexit Party way ahead of the established political parties at Westminster with 35 per cent of respondents opting for the newly-formed party - spearheaded by Nigel Farage.

It indicates that just nine per cent of those who voted Leave at the European Union referendum in 2016 will vote for the Conservatives tomorrow, as Theresa May's last-ditch attempt to save her Brexit plan looked doomed to be rejected by MPs.

Over two-thirds - or 67 per cent - who cast their ballot for Brexit three years ago said they will now vote for Mr Farage's insurgent party.

It comes after the former Ukip leader told a 3,000-strong rally in central London on Tuesday evening that a decisive victory for the Brexit Party could see the end of both Ms May and Mr Corbyn in a "buy one get one free" result.

He also made the bold claim that his party will demand to have places round the UK-EU negotiating table if they emerge top in the Euro elections.

The poll adds that Labour are clinging to second place with 18 per cent while Sir Vince Cable's party are in third place with 17 per cent and the Conservatives trail behind with just 12 per cent of the vote share. This would constitute the Tories' worst ever result in the European elections.

The Green Party enjoy eight per cent support while Change UK - formed of ex-Labour and Tory MPs - are on four per cent and Ukip are on just two per cent.

Robert Struthers, the head of polling at BMG, said: "In the 2014 European parliament elections, Nigel Farage's Ukip topped the poll. On the eve of polling day, our final poll suggests [Mr] Farage is set to do so again, and even more remarkably, he is at the helm of a different party.

"Having mopped up the Ukip vote, it is clear that the Brexit Party now represent a significant threat to the Conservatives should they be able to translate a sizeable proportion of their support at these elections into support in a Westminster context.

"Out final poll shows 56 per cent of likely voters who reported voting Conservative in the 2017 general election saying they intend to back the Brexit Party in tomorrow's election."

He continued: "While support for the Brexit Party appears to have increase since our last poll, out latest figures would suggest the Change UK have failed to bolster their support in the closing weeks of the campaign. If the poll is to believed, the fortunes of the two new parties at this election could hardly be more different."

Source Note: BMG interviewed a representative samples of 1601 GB adults between 20th and 22nd May. Data are weighted. BMG are members of the British Polling Council and abide by their rules.