Labour running out of time to stop Boris Johnson majority after surge stalls, poll indicates

Exclusive: Conservatives nine points ahead on 41 per cent as election day looms, as Jeremy Corbyn struggles to win over enough Remain voters

Labour progress in the election campaign has “stalled” and the party is running out of time to prevent Boris Johnson winning a Commons majority, a poll for The Independent has found.

It shows the Conservatives are nine points ahead on 41 per cent, with election day looming on Thursday, with no sign that Jeremy Corbyn is winning over sufficient number of voters to pull off a shock.

Labour had been successfully squeezing the Remain vote, at the cost of the Liberal Democrats – narrowing the Tory lead to six points a week ago – but the poll by BMG Research reveals no further progress.

At the same time, the party is failing to convince supporters from the 2017 election, who had deserted to the Conservatives before the campaign began, to switch back.

Robert Struthers, BMG’s head of polling, said Mr Corbyn had to “continue the squeeze on the Remain side of the equation”, if it was to haul back the Tory lead.

“This week, our polling suggests – as do figures of other pollsters – that Labour has stalled on this front,” he said. “Now, with four days left before polling day, there is little time for Labour to shift the dial.”

The results fit with growing Conservative confidence that Mr Johnson is poised to win the majority he craves to deliver Brexit by the end of next month.

The opposition parties are pinning their hopes on an unprecedented level of tactical voting, identifying the key swing seats where non-Tories voters should consider switching allegiance.

The analysis of almost 30,000 voters, for the pro-EU Best for Britain campaign, found that tactical votes by as few as 40,700 people in 36 key seats could yet deny the prime minister a clear win.

Only a Commons majority is likely to allow Brexit to go ahead, with the Democratic Unionist Party – Theresa May’s allies – now fiercely opposed to the deal on the table.

Naomi Smith, Best for Britain’s chief executive, urged Remainers to “hold their nose and vote for the candidate with the best chance of stopping the Tories” to deliver a hung parliament and a Final Say referendum”.

The poll, despite the nine-point Conservative lead, finds the biggest lead yet for Remain if, as Labour has promised, that referendum is staged next year.

Voters now back staying in the EU by 55 per cent to 45 per cent.

It underlines the extraordinary age divide which has led to Brexit being described as a betrayal of younger people who overwhelmingly oppose it.

No less than 82 per cent of 18- to 24-year-olds would back Remain in a fresh referendum and 64 per cent of 25- to 34-year-olds. Only after the age of 55 would a majority back Leave (54 per cent), rising to 61 per cent of over-65s.

The election poll puts the Tories on 41 per cent (up two on last week), with Labour on 32 per cent (down one), the Liberal Democrats on 14 per cent (up one), the Green Party on 4 per cent (down one) and the Brexit Party on 4 per cent (no change).

BMG Research interviewed 1,542 adults online between 4 and 6 December. BMG is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules​