David Cameron 'must tone down anti-EU rhetoric', insists Sir John Major

Ex-PM insists the EU is “one of the three powerhouses of the modern world”

Former Prime Minister John Major said that refusal by the EU to allow Britain to impose “pragmatic” curbs on freedom of movement would only “inflame resentment” (Getty Images)

David Cameron has been urged by Sir John Major to curb his anti-Brussels rhetoric, as the former Prime Minister warned that the chance of Britain leaving the European Union were almost 50 per cent.

He made it clear that he wanted the UK to stay in the Union, but argued that the failure of EU leaders to respond to legitimate public concerns over immigration was pushing the country towards the exit door.

Speaking in Germany, he said that refusal by the EU to allow Britain to impose “pragmatic” curbs on freedom of movement would only “inflame resentment” and play into the hands of the Eurosceptics.

He said it was in the interests of Britain and the EU alike for the UK to remain a member, but insisted compromise and tact would be required in forthcoming talks on reform.

Sir John, whose premiership was bedevilled by Tory in-fighting over Europe, was speaking following a perceptible toughening of Mr Cameron’s language about Europe ahead of next year’s general election.

He argued: “I hope both sides will approach the negotiations with care, with a determination to find a solution – not justify a breach. Wise negotiators will tone down the oratory and turn up the diplomacy.”

He said he wanted to “sound the alarm” over the risk that Britain could quit as the views of a previous “dissenting majority” had now reached critical mass.

“Now, for the first time, there is a serious possibility that our electorate could vote to leave the EU,” he told supporters of Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats in Berlin.

“I put the chance of exit at just under 50 per cent. But if the negotiations go badly, that percentage will rise. Conversely, with genuine reform, it will fall. I ask our European partners to realise we are close to a breach that is in no-one’s interest.”

The former Prime Minister said he had “not a shred of doubt” the UK was better off within the Union which had become “one of the three powerhouses of the modern world” in its 50 years of existence.

But he insisted it needed wide-ranging reform to become more compatible with nation states as “people deeply resent interference in the day-to-day activities that have been part of the British way of life for generations”.

He said Britain had a “compelling” argument for limits to freedom of movement within the EU, and said other countries across Europe faced a public backlash, and the rise of racist and borderline-racist parties, in response to volumes of migration.

Sir John spoke of his admiration for migrants in search of a better life, but said the country simply could not absorb the present and projected numbers coming to this small island.

“The sheer scale of the influx has put strains on our health, welfare, housing and education services that we struggle to meet, and has held down wages for many of the poorest members of our society,” he said. “It is not physically or politically possible without huge public disquiet.”

Sir John forecast that with “sensible reform” the EU can be made “more harmonious, more competitive and more influential”.

He said: “Can appropriate reforms be negotiated? I hope so. I believe so, but success will depend upon the mindset of member states. The UK must decide how much she wishes to leave – and our partners must decide how much they wish us to stay. What we must all realise is that a divorce may be final, absolute. A reconciliation would be unlikely.”

Mr Cameron has promised to renegotiate the terms of the UK’s membership of the EU and hold a referendum on whether to remain by 2017. He will also detail proposals by Christmas to restrict the right of EU migrants to work in Britain.