Coronavirus: Boris Johnson will warn MPs winter deaths could be ‘twice as high’ as spring

‘No alternative’ to national shutdown, PM will tell Commons – as Tory unrest grows over economic impact

Boris Johnson is set to warn MPs coronavirus deaths over the winter could be twice as high as during the pandemic’s first wave when he outlines plans for a second lockdown for England in the Commons.

The prime minister is expected to use his Monday afternoon statement to argue there is “no alternative” to four weeks of curbs on movement starting this Thursday – as he tries to quell growing Tory unrest.

Many Conservative MPs are angry about the potential impact of another lockdown on the economy, and the confusion over an end date after Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove admitted measures could be extended beyond December 2.

No 10 has slapped down Mr Gove for suggesting the lockdown could drift on through December. “This is very much seen as a 28-day set of measures, then we will go back to the regional approach,” one source told The Independent.

Mr Johnson, who pulled out of a schedule appearance at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) conference on Monday, will instead use the time to reassure anxious MPs that his government will “seek to ease” restrictions and return to the tiered system on 2 December.  

However, Dr Susan Hopkins, the government’s chief medical adviser on test and trace, raised the possibility of a longer shutdown when she said on Monday morning that a lockdown would last a “minimum” of four weeks.

Newly-released documents from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) show that the speed of Covid-19’s spread means the death toll from the disease between now and April could surpass the 85,000 predicted under the worst-case scenario.  

Mr Johnson will argue the closure of pubs, bars, restaurants and non-essential retail is absolutely necessary to slow the infection rate. The PM is expected to say: “Models of our scientists suggest that unless we act now, we could see deaths over the winter that are twice as bad or more compared with the first wave.

“I know some in the House believe we should have reached this decision earlier, but I believe it was right to try every possible option to get this virus under control at a local level, with strong local action and strong local leadership.”

MPs will vote on the new measures on Wednesday, with several reports suggesting up to 40 Tory MPs are likely to rebel on the issue. Ex-Cabinet minister Esther McVey said she would vote against the curbs because the “lockdown cure is causing more harm than Covid”.

And 1922 Committee chairman Sir Graham Brady said: “If these kinds of measures were being taken in any totalitarian country around the world we would be denouncing it as a form of evil.”

However, any revolt will be symbolic, since Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said his party will vote in favour of the restrictions. Sir Keir criticised the government for not introducing the measures sooner. “The lockdown now will be longer, it’ll be harder,” he said.

Schools and colleges will remain open, and people will also be allowed to socialise in outdoor public spaces with one other person. Although non-essential retail will have to close, some shops can remain open for click-and-collect delivery. And pubs and restaurants will still be able to provide food takeaway and delivery.

Leading figures CBI expressed their frustration at Mr Johnson’s unexpected withdrawal from the annual conference. “To my knowledge this has only not happened once in history,” said CBI president Lord Bilimoria. “However, we are hopeful that at some stage he will engage with us.”

The group’s director-general Dame Carolyn Fairbairn said on Sunday that the second lockdown will be a “real body blow” for firms and that appearing at the conference was the ideal opportunity for Mr Johnson “to make it absolutely clear that he backs business”.

She added: “It has been a disappointment to me that there hasn’t been a closer relationship there... I think it could be a lot better, I really do.”